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Our Take on the Tournament
Read our STF breakdowns of the four regions while you wait for games to tip off:
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Erin Andrews: Coach, how do you explain your team's staying in this game despite a seeming lack of real effort or urgency on the court?
"Bruce Pearl":
Erin Andrews:
Gillespie: And there he goes to the locker room. If he does what I tell him to do, the Volunteers have no chance in the second half.
"Bruce Pearl":Geez, what am I gonna do to motivate these kids? They're flat out on the court. Let's see, what can I play that they know and like...I know! That awesome bohemian rock opera song. I'll show them how with it I am!
"Bruce Pearl": (walks into the player's room) Guys, you looked a little flat out there. I know you're nervous because of what's at stake. Not to worry, all you need is to calm the nerves a bit before the second half. And I've got just the thing. Okay, here goes:
The Volunteers leave the locker room uplifted, clear-minded, and ready to run through a wall. They proceed to shoot 30-for-34 in the second half, force 20 turnovers, and hit, like, 12 straight three-pointers en route to a 32 point clobbering of Kentucky.
Gillespie:NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Billy Gillespie then confronts "Bruce Pearl" outside the stadium.
Gillespie: What the hell was that out there? You were supposed to ruin them! You were supposed to help us win!
"Bruce Pearl": Yeah, except for one thing...this is my team.
Gillespie: Huh?
"Bruce Pearl" peels off his mask to reveal the actual Bruce Pearl.
Pearl: SURPRISE BITCH! Did you really think I was going to miss this game?
Gillespie:NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!! But how did you pull this off? I heard the hand-fart thingy!
Pearl: Let's just say I'm a quick learner. Aaaaaaaaaannnd I had a boom box behind the whiteboard.
Gillespie: But, wait...If you're here...and you've been in this building the whole time...then..who do we have tied up in the van?!?
It must be a bit unsettling for Kentucky basketball fans to watch the Volunteers' sudden run of success in the past few years. For the Wildcats, Bruce Pearl must be the most hated man in the state.
Despite a very slow start to the season, Billy Gillespie's team finds themselves at 10-3 in the conference and in control of their Eastern division destiny. Sunday's UT-UK game is going to be huge for them for conference position and possibly putting the Cats back in the at-large debate. But most importantly, it's to prevent their hated rivals from their first outright SEC regular season title in more than 40 years, and their first share of the title since 2000, when their star player was the black guy from Reno 911.
With star player Patrick Patterson out for the season, the Wildcats need to take a desperate measure. So they've hatched a plan to help level the playing field...and get a bit of revenge.
Scene: Friday Night, Feb. 29, 2008. Bruce Pearl has just adjourned practice, and is in his office just before heading home.
Secretary: Well, it looks like Wayne Chism is going to have a much easier time in the paint now that Patterson is done for the year.
Pearl:WHOOOOO!!! HOW ABOUT THAT CHISM! HUH?!?
Secretary: And remember, you still need to set up the makeup exam for Lofton, he won't make the date of his midterm because of the Florida game on Wednesday.
Pearl:WHOOOOO!!! HOW ABOUT THAT LOFTON! HUH?!? (gives female graduate assistant a slightly-too-long stare)
Secretary: ...I see. Well, have a good night, coach.
Pearl:WHOOOOO!!! HOW ABOUT THAT KNIGHT! HUH?!? (awkwardly hugs a passing Candace Parker in the hallway)
Secretary: Sir, we don't have anyone named Knight on our team.
Pearl:WHOOOOO!!! HOW ABOUT THAT WII! HUH?!? (gropes a life-size Pam Summitt doll as he leaves the office)
Pearl then walks out of his office and into the streets of Knoxville. Just as he's taking in the view of the Cumberland river, an unmarked van stops, drags Bruce pearl inside, and drives off.
Pearl:AAAAAAAAAA!!! Whatever it is, Mr. Myles, I didn't send those text messages to recruit my own son!
Ominous voice:Bwaahahahahaaaah. Looks like you've got a big game tomorrow, don't you? It's too bad you be there for it.
Pearl: Who are you? Are you a bookie?
Voice: No...I am far more inside than that. We have so much more at stake than money. I represent who never want to see your team become a power. We seek to nip your program at the bud. We seek to steal you from the limelight you so richly desire. We seek...revenge.
Pearl: No...it can't be...
Voice: Oh, yes...
Pearl: You won't get away with this, Billy! People are going to notice I'm gone.
Gillespie: Oh, no they won't. We've already replaced you with a body double.
Pearl: Who?
Gillespie: That guy who does fart noises with his hands. He kinda looks like you. We paid him handsomely for the little gig. You think he makes any good money putting those videos up on YouTube?
You see, Bruce, you've underestimated us. We will do whatever it takes to maintain the universal order and keep you from an outright SEC regular season title. WHATEVER IT TAKES.
Erin Andrews: Coach, how do you explain your team's slim lead despite a seeming lack of real effort or urgency on the court?
"Bruce Pearl":
Erin: Thanks, coach, and good luck in the second half.
(waits for him to leave)
Words cannot describe how badly I want that man right now. How did he do that?
Michael Winslow: (caged, talking under his smile) Help...me...
Gillespie: And there he goes to the locker room. If he does what I tell him to do, the Volunteers have no chance in the second half.
"Bruce Pearl":Geez, what am I gonna do to motivate these kids? They're flat out on the court. Let's see, what can I play that they know and like...I know! That Herbie--Whatchamacallit techno song. I show them how with it I am!
"Bruce Pearl": (walks into the player's room) Guys, you looked a little flat out there. I know you're nervous because of what's at stake. Not to worry, all you need is to calm the nerves a bit before the second half. And I've got just the thing. Okay, here goes:
Wayne Chism: (head explodes)
Chris Lofton: (vomits, then eats own vomit, then vomits it again)
Everyone on the team named "Smith": (put on ominous suits and sunglasses, pull out Desert Eagle pistols, and start capping asses)
Steven Pearl: (applauds, then his imaginary friend kicks him in the nether region)
"Bruce Pearl": Uh-oh.
The Volunteers leave the locker room injured, disheveled, and confused. They proceed to shoot 3-for-34 in the second half, commit 20 turnovers, and miss, like, 12 straight layups en route to a 32 point loss at the hands of Kentucky.
Gillespie:BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAHHH!!! Yes, it worked! Order is finally restored in the state of Kentucky. Now, if only we can run Rich Brooks out of town and get the football team to suck again.
Actual phone messagefrom my sister who was at the Syracsue-Pitt game.... " Hey, I don't really watch basketball, but isn't it almost impossible to lose when you are winning by so many points? People are really, really pissed here, I saw someone kicking a parked car. It looks like a funeral just let out".
Let's all spare a thought for John Wooden today. The 97-year-old Wizard of Westwood fell in his home on Thursday night, suffering a broken wrist and collarbone. He is at an undisclosed hospital in the Los Angeles area and recovering nicely, according to his daughter:
"Dad's spirits are good," Muehlhausen said in a statement. "He is up and joking around with the family. He will probably be in the hospital for a couple of more days before he goes home." [Associated Press]
While I am too young to have witnessed any of Coach Wooden's legendary teams in person, his impact on the basketball world has penetrated into the soul of the game. His quiet dignity in retirement has provided a strong counterpoint to some of the bad behavior that plagues the sport. Would you want to screw up if Coach Wooden were watching you? I wouldn't. And not out of fear, but out of respect.
Best wishes, Coach. We hope you get to watch some top-notch college basketball during your recovery.
Thought that college hoops all finished with perfection talk following Memphis and NJIT last weekend? Not quite, because Oregon State is staring down a probable winless conference campaign.
It has been about as forgettable a season as possibe at Oregon State (6-21, 0-15), but we here at STF tend to navigate towards the positive side and don’t like to see anyone go winless. That said, I would not bet one cent on the Beavers (vs Arizona and Arizona State) winning a conference game for here on out. Hell, given the state of the Pac-10, we might be looking at the most over-matched team in BCS conference play history.
OSU’s season was officially declared a flaming disaster somewhere in between losing to Alaska-Fairbanks and firing head coach John Jay. Heading into the PAC-10, one could see the winless season well in the works by December (which also happens to be the last time the Beavers won a game). But hey, at least the players aren’t lacking any confidence.
Want some hope Beavers fans? Previously winless in conference Northwestern (1-14) finally got its first win in the Bog Ten vs Michigan on Tuesday.
Looks like this post (much like Matt Causey) is going to be short and sweet. Didn't get to see as much ball this week as I would have liked (damn you, real job), but I have read enough to be relevant on this post. Screw this whole leap year excitement. Anyone ready for the Duke/UNC rematch to decide the East #1 seed?
Team of the Week: North Carolina
Was there any doubt? Besides the game at Duke, UNC has rolled over its opponents on way to regaining the #1 ranking in the polls this coming week. Hansbrough has been unstoppable, Quentin Thomas has been viable and the rest of the rosters has started playing some defense. I do not see another loss coming until they get to that awesome March 6th showdown in Cameron. Then, who knows. Oh, and in case you haven't heard, Ty Lawson is back. So, that's kind of a big deal.
Worst of the Week: Wake Forest
Sorry Deacs. You had all this NCAA Tournament momentum after that huge win against Duke. Then, you come out and are barely competitive against UNC. That is understandable, seeing how well they have been playing, but you didn't even scare them a bit. Then, you get to polish that resume a bit more by getting Maryland at home... and you blow it. You live by the freewheelin' style, you die by the freewheelin' style. If you are trying to make the tournament, you should start by knocking off another probably tournament team on your home turf. Not the way to keep the momentum going.
Player of the Week: Tyler Hansbrough, UNC
I have done my best to keep him off this list so far this year, but in the end, much like every team he competes against, you just have to give up at some point. The kid has been absolute dynamite since Ty Lawson went out and if it weren't for this pesky freshman in Manhattan, KS, ole Tyler would have National Player of the Year all locked up. Perhaps the Lawson injury was the best thing that could have happened to this team. With him out, they have been forced to rely on the burly shoulders of their dominant All American. Which seemingly everyone knew (except for Roy Williams). Fate forced your hand there, Roy, and now you look like a genius. Keep Hansbrough on the court and you won't be leaving the state again until you (potentially) get to San Antonio.
What To Watch For:
3/1 Duke @ NC State (could decide Freshman of the Year in the ACC)
3/1 Wake @ Georgia Tech (on thin ice, the Deacs need this for a NCAA Tournament push)
3/1 Virginia @ Miami (read the parenthetical analysis directly above me. Substitute Canes for Deacs)
3/2 Clemson @ Maryland (one team will rise, another will fall -- in the NCAA Tournament seeding)
3/4 FSU @ Carolina (you think Uche Echefu wishes he would have picked the Tar Heels now?)
This is going to be the last time auto-bid watch takes on this form. All of the speculating about who will grab an auto is about to become sudden-death, so starting next week, the watch will be updating daily as teams fall out of the running by losing in their conference tournaments.
In the meantime, let's look at this puppy from above the fray one last time:
1. ACC 2. Big 12 3. Pac 10 4. Big East 5. SEC 6. Big Ten 7. Atlantic 10 8. MVC 9. Mountain West 10. C-USA
11. Horizon - Butler (15-2) took down Wright State (12-5) at Hinkle last night, assuring themselves home court advantage throughout the Horizon tournament. Last year, this scenario went the other way, and Wright won out, allowing two bids from the big H. Will it happen this season? It's less likely at Hinkle.
12. MAC - Kent State is 11-2 in league play, with Western Michigan just behind at 10-3. With three games left, the top seed is still in doubt, but the two teams don't play each other in any of those remaining contests.
13. CAA - Virginia Commonwealth has locked this one up, with a sterling 14-3 record and just one game left to play. Odds are the Dagger is going back to the Dance.
14. WCC - Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are still tied up at 11-1 apiece, with the big rematch looming this Saturday. This is by far my most anticipated game of the weekend, as the first meeting in Moraga was stellar, and this one in Spokane will be even more intense, with conference seeds on the line.
15. Sun Belt - Still one of the best conference races out there. South Alabama and Western Kentucky (both 11-5) are both dance-worthy, but it seems unlikely that both will get in. Some bubble-ologists have floated the possibility that Team USA has the goods to get in even if they lose in the tourney final, so I could be wrong.
16. Patriot - This one got good overnight. American and Navy are tied at 9-4 after the Midshipmen completed a season sweep of the Eagles, who beat Maryland early on. Each team has one game left, so if it stays this way, Navy gets the #1 seed.
17. MAAC - The top spot has temporarily gone to the surging Loyola Greyhounds, at 12-5. Niagara and Siena (both 11-5) battle tonight to clarify the picture a bit. And I haven't even mentioned Rider, also tied for second.
18. Big West - Cal State Northridge holds a 1 1/2 game lead over CS-Fullerton as of right now, but there are still three games on the sked out West, so there's the chance this could change.
19. Southland - Lamar has the best record at 12-1, but most observers feel that Stephen F. Austin (11-2) is the stronger team. We won't get a head-to-head to test that theory in the remaining three games, so the Southland tourney should be rockin'.
20. SoCon - Blah, Blah, Blah, Davidson. Goin' for 20-0 perfection on Saturday at Georgia Southern (13-6).
21. WAC - Boise State is on top (11-3) with Nevada (10-4) drafting just behind. Each has two games left, but not against one another.
22. Summit - The regular-season championship was locked up by Oral Roberts (16-1) in Thursday's victory over South Dakota State.
23. NEC - Robert Morris is at 15-2, with Wagner just aft at 14-3. With just one game left on the regular-season slate and a win over Wagner in the books already, all the Colonials have to do is hold serve.
24. Ivy - Cornell (10-0) can lock up the auto-bid and the Ivy championship with a win at Dartmouth (2-8) tonight.
25. Big Sky - Portland State has this one dialed in. They're up 2 1/2 games with just two left to play.
26. America East - UMBC's Retrievers (13-2) by a comfortable margin.
27. Big South - UNC-Asheville (9-4) will roll into South Carolina with one game to make up on Winthrop (10-3) in the last game of the season for both teams on Saturday. Think that will be an electric atmosphere?
28. Atlantic Sun - Kind of tight. Belmont sits at 13-2, with Jacksonville 12-3. They don't play each other in the final games tomorrow, so Gardner-Webb has a chance to play spoiler.
29. MEAC - Morgan State (12-2) finally gained some separation from Norfolk State (10-3), but there are two games left to play before the league tourney.
30. Ohio Valley - Austin Peay has clinched the overall #1 seed in the OVC by beating Eastern Kentucky last night.
31. Indies - OK, we can stop talking about them now.
32. SWAC - All Hornets, baby. Alabama State is 11-3, but the SWAC still has a heavy slate of four games left to finish up.
Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.
Approaching Lock These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.
USC [18-9(9-6), RPI: 39, SOS: 23, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-7] With last night win at Arizona it looks like the Trojans will be dancing again this year. The only bad loss on the entire resume came in the season opener to Mercer at home and as bad a loss as that was it seems the Trojans have done enough to overcome it. They've notched wins over SIU, Oklahoma, Arizona State, @UCLA and a season sweep of both Oregon schools. They'd probably be best served to knock off Cal next week, but they can afford losses @ASU and to Stanford and still reach the dance regardless of their tournament showing.
Kansas State [17-9(8-5), RPI: 42, SOS: 18, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-4] Despite dropping their last three games I believe the Wildcats will sneak into the dance. Of course, this is assuming they win their final two games after falling to Kansas tomorrow night. Those wins (Colorado, @Iowa State) would get the 'Cats to 10-6 in the Big 12 and likely lock them into a 3rd place conference finish. Toss in a "need" for the country's best player to reach the dance and things look even better for the 'Cats. It's must win in those final two though, as the nonconference schedule looks bad in more than a few spots. It surely helps that the Aggies are sliding, but on top of the regular season finish I'd recommend a solid tourney showing just to be safe for the Wildcats.
Somewhere In The Middle These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.
Texas A&M [20-7(7-6), RPI: 43, SOS: 77, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-4] What once looked like a slam dunk continues to get dicier and dicier by the day. Having just put their second 3 game losing streak to an end with a blitzing of Nebraska on Wednesday the Aggies can get back on track and reach the NCAA's despite their sinking numbers. It's not oging to be easy though as the Aggies close with three very losable games (@Oklahoma, @Baylor, Kansas) and an 0-3 record would put them in a very tough spot entering the conference tourney. They'd probably need to reach the tournament finals in order to steal an at-large bid with a 7-9 conference finish and nothing really to lean on in the nonconference. It Doesn't Look Good These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.
Ohio State [17-11(8-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 31, Vs RPI Top 50: 1-9] The Buckeyes, like the Gators, may miss the tournament a year after reaching the finals last time out. Said failure on OSU's part leaves the Big Ten capped at four teams, but their omission is very much warranted at this point. They've beaten absolutely no one but the Gators this year and that one doesn't carry any weight. Each of the three tourney caliber teams they played in the nonconference beat them pretty handedly (Butler, UNC, and Tex A&M) and they've suffered a pair of abhorrent losses. Most notably to 9-19 Michigan to kick off their current 3 game losing streak. To reach the dance they'll probably have to win out, but I doubt they can topple Purdue. Though they'll likely knock off the road princess's from East Lansing when they come calling in the finale. After that it'll take a deep tourney run the includes wins over at least two of the conference's top four. Otherwise we would be looking at a tournament without half of last years final four.
Dayton [17-9(5-8), RPI: 37, SOS: 25, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-3] After starting the season 14-1 and picking up wins over Pittsburgh (home) and Louisville (road) the Flyers looked to be on the fast track to at-large lock status. Since then, however, their 3-8 and have fallen to 11th (of 14) place in the A-10 standings. On top of that their best case scenario is a .500 league record that may not be enough. The big questions is how much weight will the committee give the injury to Chris Wright? A lot, maybe, if the Flyers make a deep conference tourney run after Wright returns and fall in the tournament final. Otherwise It's difficult for me to see the Flyers getting in right now. Not to mention Wright's far from a guarantee to return when the A-10 tourney kicks off.
Louisville 90 Notre Dame 85 Louisville’s potato famine defense did not work on Gody (40 points, 12 rebounds, first three treys of the season), but the Cards get the home win. Louisville may be the Final Four sleeper of the year.
USC 70 Arizona 58 Trojans seal bid, Wildcat fans make good first impression on ESPN
Saint Louis 64 Saint Joseph’s 55 It’s a race to see who can blow up their season the fastest in the A10! First one to lose to St. Bonnies wins!
UCLA 70 Arizona State 49 Sun Devils needed dot do anything but get blown out at home
Stanford 72 Washington 69 Cardinal hang to keep pace for #2 seed
Maryland 74 Wake Forest 70 Terps win virtual play-in game to stay in the bracket
Wisconsin 57 Michigan State 42 Spartans now look like they are cruising for the 8-9 game
Butler 66 Wright State 61 Bulldogs clinch Horizon regular season title.
For Duke haters, this video of the Blue Devil mascot injuring his knee may wind up rivaling the "This Is Why You Suck" video. And don't go calling us Duke haters, it's clearly written in the STF Rulebook that we must post any video of a mascot being injured due to hilariousness.
Notre Dame (21-5) at Louisville (22-6) - 7pm, ESPN. According to the Associated Press, Rick Pitino has no idea which defense to use against the Irish. If he wants to stop Luke Harangody, he may have to resort to a pitchfork-waving mob of villagers. The Beast continues to shore up his 20/10 average for the season, due in part to the speed and finesse of his teammates. Louisville is riding a seven-game win streak and playing at home, so this ought to be a doozy.
Michigan State (22-5) at Wisconsin (23-4) - 9pm, ESPN2. The Spartans gobbled up Penn State and Iowa in their past two games, but now it’s time to pick on someone their own size. Wisconsin, on the other hand, seems to be able to handle anyone in the Big Ten not named Purdue. This game is in Madison, where I’m pretty much expecting Steve Lavin and Brent Musberger to purchase a nice summer cottage together at this point.
Also On:
St. Louis at Saint Joseph's - 7pm, ESPN2. Murray State at Tennessee Tech - 7pm, ESPNU USC at Arizona - 9pm, ESPN
Wright State at Butler - 9pm, ESPNU. If Wright wins this, they sweep the Bulldogs and have the inside track for the #1 conference tourney seed, which means home court.
Here it is, the moment we've all been waiting for. Fellow Stormers, in the next week or so we will finally know who this year's Big Ten champion is! Please, please - hold your applause until the very end. Michigan State, a preseason favorite of mine, is no longer in contention for the title. However, the Spartans could easily play the role of spoiler with games at Wisconsin and against Indiana in East Lansing. A win against either team could spell their demise. And while all of that drama is taking place, don't forget about those Boilermakers - they are still right there in contention, just waiting for the Badgers and/or Hoosiers to slip up.
Team with the Best Week - Northwestern. Well there you have it, folks - the first and only time this season that this prestigious award will be bestowed upon the Wildcats. But in all honesty, they sort of deserve it. It all started last Saturday...the Wildcats went the distance with the Indiana Hoosiers and, while they failed to prevail, they were impressive nonetheless. Then, to follow up that performance, the Wildcats picked up their first conference win against Michigan. Way to go, fellas - way to go.
Player of the Week - Armon Bassett, Indiana. Bassett is one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in all of the Big Ten. He's only a sophomore, yet he has been the most clutch player for the Hoosiers this season. He's consistently the most reliable ball handler and passer, and when the game's on the line, Armon is by far the most reliable free throw shooter. His stats have skyrocketed over the past week, (albeit against Northwestern and Ohio State) but consider this more of a season-long achievement award. Regardless of what happens with the Hoosiers in the nearby future, Bassett is the key to this team's success.
Team with the Worst Week - Illinois. Three straight losses - including road defeats at Penn State and Michigan - does not bode well for the struggling Illini. They're now 3-12 in the Big Ten and 11-17 overall. But at least Alex Legion is transferring in next year. Right?
Bruce Weber Moment of the Week - The Illini scored 43 points in a loss to Michigan last Saturday. So what did Brucey have to say about it after the game? "We keep trying to be enthusiastic and positive," Weber said. "But our guys are beaten down. You can just see it emotionally. The body language is not great." Stop complaining, Bruce and do something about it already.
Games to Watch - 2/28 Michigan State @ Wisconsin (If Wisconsin wins, they're essentially conference champs)
3/1 Ohio State @ Minnesota (a battle of the bubble teams?)
3/2 Indiana @ Michigan State (another key game for the conference title race)
It's great rooting for your alma mater and all during the NCAA Tournament, but to keep it interesting at least throughout the opening weekend, (outside of you, you know, hardcore gambling) you need to develop a rooting interest in a few smaller teams. That said, we here at STF have decided to give you a few teams that will be throwing our support towards in the Dance (outside of our traditional rooting interests) and why you may want to do same. As always, tell us who you will be rooting for no real good reason and why the casual fan should do the same.
Marco's Picks UMBC - This team has been on my radar since November following an upset win over George Washington. I have a soft sport for any university that has the balls to keep its name despite the fact that is sounds like a college that should be advertised inside a subway car. And we haven't even gotten to the superly-awesome Golden Retrievers nickname yet. Cool names aside, this team can also ball. The Retrievers (20-7) have already clinched the America East title and are the overwhelming favorites to win the conference tournament in Binghamton. So if they dance, you can say you are rooting for UMBC for their style of play, not just the cool name. Only chicks do that.
ARIZONA STATE - The Sun Devils are this season's ultimate redemption story. Coached by a man who has run out of Tobacco Road despite winning five tournament games in five seasons, the Sun Devils are just one season removed from an 0-14 start in the Pac-10. They have one of the most underrated freshmen in the country in James Harden and have a fighting chance to crawl their way out of the brutal Pac-10 and into the NCAA Tournament.
AMERICAN - Every season, we need at least one team to break a long tournament drought. So why not the Eagles? They have never danced in their long history, and they have as good a chance as anyone (despite the recent loss to Navy) in the up-and-down Patriot. I also throw my support towards AU after spending a summer semester there two summers ago, dropping close to $5,000 at the Chipotle on Wisconsin Ave.
WAKE FOREST - I think that everyone knows the deal here, as the Deacons are still trying to recover from the sudden and tragic loss of Skip Prosser. It's a long-shot now, but I can't think of anyone outside of the opposing fanbase who wouldn't be rooting for Wake if they make the Dance.
SAINT MARY'S - Easy one for me. Aussie freshmen Patty Mills might be the most exciting point guard in college basketball... they have a sweet, old school gym that reminds me of the same kind of gyms that I used to play Pennsylvania state basketball playoff games at and they have legitimate chance to win at least one game in tournament. Also, that's a badass logo.
Eric's Picks..... UNC-ASHEVILLE: This pick is highly conditional. Without 7'7" Kenny George, they're a donut, with zilch in the middle. With Big Kenny, they were undefeated in conference play. When he started sitting, they lost four in a row. I draw some strength from having heard UNCA coach Biedenbach say to reporters "Kenny is not ready to play every night. We need him in the tournament." However, if Kenny doesn't play more right now, the tournament is going to be an uphill slog against Winthrop. Again. The good news is that Kenny scored 15 on Saturday, and 18 last night and should be in the lineup as the Bulldogs play their last game of the regular season at Winthrop tomorrow, for a chance at the season sweep and a #1 Big South seed.
SOUTH ALABAMA: My appreciation for this team is an odd sort of carry-over from last year's tournament, when Ronnie Arrow was coaching Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. When his success at TAMUCC (134-91) led to his hiring by Team USA, they immediately became a team of note for me. You see, Ronnie coached this team very well once before, from '87-'95. He had a couple of 20-win seasons and a 114-93 overall record before administration pulled the rug out from under him. Then he built up a provisional DI team into a tournament contender and got a second shot at his old job. This guy can coach, and his team can play.
BAYLOR: I guess I have a soft spot for rebuilt reputations, because this is another one. Former Bears coach Dave Bliss pretty much behaved as the devil incarnate at this small baptist institution, attempting to paint one of his own players as a drug dealer during a murder investigation. Scott Drew (son of the legendary Valpo coach Homer) has turned this team around faster than anyone could have expected, and he's doing it with class.
MISSISSIPPI STATE: Jarvis Varnado. I just love a guy who can block 10+ shots a game whenever he wants to. And the uniforms have an odd appeal for me, as well. Gotta have that checked out by a licensed physician.
ROBERT MORRIS: This one is largely a cult of personality. Marco and I watched new RMU coach Mike Rice coach his team to a loss in the inaugural Philly Classic just after Thanksgiving, but came away impressed with his post-game demeanor. We figured the former Pitt assistant would turn this team around within the next couple of years. We had no idea the Colonials would be the top team in the NEC by season's end. And let us not forget that Tony Lee is cranking out triple-doubles.
It was an interesting seven days in the SEC, that's for sure. Since Saturday, we've seen an SEC team beat the number one team in the country; gain the vacated top spot; and then lose it less than 48 hours later.
Business as usual, wouldn't you say.
A few reports ago, I mentioned something about Joe Lunardi predicting six SEC teams would make the Big Dance. As of today, this number has been reduced to five, with Tennessee, Vandy, Florida, Arkansas, and Mississippi State being the recipients. Not too bad for a conference that's supposed to be mediocre this year, aye?
Don't be surprised if this number winds up increasing by one, either... I'm looking at you, UK. OK, on with the update:
Team of the Week - Vanderbilt This award was decided Tuesday night when Vandy beat the Volunteers in Nashville. Had UT won that game, they'd be sitting here right now. Just how good are the Commodores? Well, during the last seven days, Vandy beat Georgia and Tennessee (both home games). Currently, their SEC record stands at 9-4, one game behind Kentucky and two behind Tennessee.
This should be one hell of an SEC Tournament in a couple of weeks.
Worst Team of the Week - Ole Miss After a brilliant 14-0 start to their season (albeit, against a cupcake schedule) the Rebels have found conference play to be a much tougher animal. After last night's loss to UK (a game that saw Ole Miss trail by 20-plus points, only to lose by four), Andy Kennedy's bunch stands at 4-9 in the SEC. What makes Ole Miss' record even more confounding is after beating rival Mississippi State last Wednesday, they turn around and lose by 20 to LSU.
When you add in last night's near miss, the positive vibes from the MSU win are all gone.
Player of the Week - Shan Foster Not much debate this week. Against the Vols on Tuesday, Foster had 32 points. During the Georgia win last Saturday, Foster scored 29. These back-to-back performances by Foster may have also shut the door on the SEC Player of the Year race.
In order for him not to win it, Vandy will have to go completely in the tank, led by an incredible Foster slump. Of course, Chris Lofton could catch even more fire and decide he too wants to score 30 points a game and might just start launching as soon as he crosses half-court.
During his torrid two-game stretch, Foster was 9-18 from the 3-point arc and 12-15 from the free throw line.
Games to Watch 3/1 Alabama at Ole Miss 3/1 Vanderbilt at Arkansas 3/1 Mississippi State at Florida [CBS] 4:00 3/1 South Carolina at Auburn 3/2 Kentucky at Tennessee [CBS] Noon 3/2 Georgia at LSU 3/4 Arkansas at Ole Miss [ESPN] 9:00 3/5 Kentucky at South Carolina 3/5 Georgia at Auburn 3/5 Alabama at LSU 3/5 Mississippi State at Vanderbilt 3/5 Tennessee at Florida
Cool story of the past week: I get my STF t-shirt in the mail from the leadership of this here site, and immediately, I wear it to the gym. I'm on the treadmill, doing a hearty 5.3 (it's basically like walking a little fast, but it hurts), and the girl next to me, a blond I'd evaluate superficially at the 6.7 - 7.4 range, looks over at me and smiles, just a smidge. This has never really happened to me, so I halfway trip on the edge of the treadmill and almost bite it straight backwards to the vulcanized floor. I regain my balance, with "Flashing Lights" blasting in my ears, as she says, "I've seen that site."
And that was basically the extent of the conversation. Still, I love hope. Sweet, sweet hope.
Now onto the Big East.
TEAM WITH THE BEST WEEK: LOUISVILLE The last time Louisville lost was January 28th; Johan Santana was still contemplating throwing to Joe Mauer for another season, and a different Castro was running Cuba. In that time, they've waxed Marquette, Georgetown, 'Cuse, and Pittsburgh, and every mid-level CBB analyst in America seems to anoint them as a sleeper team for a Final Four run. My take, as if it matters: I love Pitino, and think he's about 18 times the coach Roy Williams is, but gets about 3/4 of the credit. I think they're athletic, and they're going to enter the NCAAs hot (they may win the BE Tournament). Still, I'm not about to ride Padgett's baloney pony like the rest of the CSTV/ESPN 2pm Saturday/RayCom Sports gang. He's good, but he's not super. He'll get eaten alive in a competitive Sweet 16 game.
PLAYER WITH THE BEST WEEK: JEFF ADRIEN Adrien got runner up status in this category towards the beginning of the season. Right now, he's blowing up. Now, granted, his biggest game of the season numbers-wise took place against Rutgers, which is like saying you scored the Prom Queen when she was on rufies (too soon?). However, you just know Adrien is gonna have a monster performance in New York, and him and A.J. Price are clicking like Brian and Peter, Lindsay and one of the eight Italians she slept with on New Year's Eve, or T-Boz and Takeo. Is it me, or does he kinda look like Rudy Gay? (Not Takeo - Adrien. Man, I'm terrible with modifiers)
TEAM WITH THE WORST WEEK: PITTSBURGH Remember when these guys were Top 10 material? They've dropped 3 of their last 4, mostly to ranked teams within the league - Louisville, Marquette, and ND. They're 8-7 in the league right now. While most likely they make the Dance, let's say they enter as a six/seven. I say Six West, and they bite it to the 11. If they get a 5, they're definitely going down. A 12 always beats a 5 somewhere, right? (Note: I got killed two years ago picking three 12 over 5 games. I'm a moron) THE SKED TONIGHT - Notre Dame vs. Louisville. I absolutely hate Notre Dame, and cringe when people say "they might make a run." Harangody is slow and gets too much credit. Mike Brey looks like a snake oil salesman. I dunno. Is that anti-Catholic?
SATURDAY - Georgetown vs. Marquette. This is exactly the type of game GU should win, because Marquette's presence at the 5 is kinda suspect. That means it's exactly the type of game they'll likely lose.
SATURDAY - Seton Hall vs. St. John's. "Hey Norm, don't you wish NYC had more talent to choose from? It totally screws us." "Yep, Bobby, you're soooo right."
MONDAY - Pittsburgh vs. WVU. If this was football, I'd care more.
GENERALLY IRRELEVANT FAMILY GUY QUOTE OF THE WEEK
Stewie: We're playing house... Lois: But that kid is all tied up! Stewie: Roman Polanski's house.
Intensity. That's going to be the theme on March 8th, when Georgetown and Louisville lock horns presumably for the 1 seed in the Big East Tournament. Louisville's already taken down Georgetown once this season, in the famed Pitino-Changes-Suits-But-Doesn't-Grope-Erin-When-She-Asks-Him-About-It game, but this time'll be in DC. Not that the No. 1 vs the No. 2 in the BE Tournament really matters (ya both get a bye), but it'll be a humdinger nonetheless. Just like we imagine Roman's house is at any given time.
Team Of The Week - USC. After a 2-0 week that netted them a season sweep of both Oregon schools as well as putting them two games over .500 in conference it looks like the Trojans will be dancing again this year. This is after opening the season with a loss at home to Mercer by 15 points that created a California sized crater for them to climb out of. That said though this is technically only about the last week and it was a good one. Mainly because they showed resilience in climbing from a 15 point deficit to knock off the Ducks and didn't allow themselves to become Oregon State's first Pac-10 victim this season. It was the first time in over a week that USC looked like they belonged in the tournament and that they'd be a threat when they got there. I'm still not sure they'll be able to make any real noise in the dance, but if with the right draw they could reach the second weekend.
Player Of The Week - OJ Mayo. If you can believe it this is the first time all season OJ's managed to nab Pac-10 POTW honors this season. It's in large part for his ability to take care of the ball after a week in which turned it over 10 times in just one game. This week he managed only half of that, in BOTH game's combined. On top of that he dropped 32 and 21 points on the Ducks and Beavers respectively though he assist numbers remain low for a point guard (2 per game). Regardless as OJ goes the Trojans go and as long as he's shooting 5-7 from three like he did against the Ducks their should be a notch in the win column for the men of Troy.
Team With The Worst Week - Oregon. The Ducks really needed an LA split to feel even a little comfortable about their at-large chances heading down the home stretch but they didn't get it. The let halftime leads against both USC and UCLA slip away and are now certainly on the outside looking in. It doesn't help that they've tallied an abysmal 1-7 record against the conference's top 4 teams (USC, WSU, STAN, and UCLA) and currently sit a very disappointing 6-9 in conference. A position that leaves them in need of a strong 3 game finish just to reach .500 and even then they're far from a tournament lock. If the Pac-10 has any hope of 7 team's reaching the dance the boys in Oregon need to pick it up.
Upcoming Games - 2/28 USC @ Arizona - A USC win will all but officially punch their dance ticket. 2/28 (4) UCLA @ Arizona State - The Sun Devils get a great shot to help their cause at home. 2/28 (22) Washington State @ California - A virtual must win for the Bears if they're looking to reach the post-season. 3/1 USC @ Arizona State - Another great chance for ASU to help themselves out. 3/1 (22) Washington State @ (8) Stanford - Just a shot to enhance the winners bracket positioning. 3/2 (4) UCLA @ Arizona - The 'Cats should try and avoid another 30 point beat down in this one.
Give Canes credit for getting back into the game (down 21 ), but Tigers finally seal a tourney bid
George Washington 85 Rhode Island 68
Wow......Rams can now join Dayton as "A-10 teams that have officially killed themselves"
Alabama 59 Arkansas 56
Razorbacks fall out of the bracket.....
Kentucky 58 Ole Miss 54
Wildcats in the bracket?......
Duke 71 Georgia Tech 58
Blue Devils back to form
Kansas 74 Iowa State 64
Jayhawks also back to form
Illinois State 68 Creighton 54
Maybe Valley can sneak in one more team....
Also, we'll being giving a t-shirt away on every Wednesday at noon from now on. We'll call it Wednesday NCAA Tournament Quizzo.....only lacking the usual Miller Light t-shirt giveaways at normal quizzo.
Again, I wasn't really feelin' it when it came to the significance of tonight's top 25 games. Instead, I went for a matchup that has a great deal of meaning in the at-large picture.
Miami (Fla.) (19-7) at Clemson (19-7) - Not Televised. Clemson's tournament profile looks pretty good at this point, but if they really want to lay the doubts to rest and solidify their third-place standing in the ACC, it really behooves them to win this home game against a possible contender. On the Miami side, this is their last chance to make a statement for the committee outside of the conference tournament. We're dealing with a lot of shit here.
Actually on TV:
Kansas at Iowa State - 7pm, ESPN. If Kansas loses this one, call and tell me to take my head out of the oven. Especially since it's electric.
Florida State at NC State - 7pm, ESPNU Georgia Tech at Duke - 9pm, ESPN St. John's at Georgetown - 9pm, ESPNU West Virginia at DePaul - 9pm, ESPN2
Now that we have some t-shirts to give away as a prize (what, free posts don't count as prizes anymore?), it's time for STF's first ever give-away contest. The contest will also answer a questions that has been proposed in many an email....
"What team is that in your logo?"
If you can name the team in above logo, you've got yourself a free t-shirt. First person to answer it correctly wins. Feel free to answer in the comments or via email. We'll start dropping hints if we don't have a winner after awhile. This thing rides until we have a winner...
HINT #1: Took place this decade.......
HINT #2: West of the Mississippi...
Guess as many times as you like, limit one team per comment/email. If you don't hear back, that means your guess is incorrect.
You might say this is long overdue, and you'd be right. Like the rest of the nation, I let the Kent State Golden Flashes sit under my radar until a hard-fought road victory over a very good Saint Mary's team. In a way, the Flashes are almost victims of their own success - they've been so consistently good for so long (20+ wins every season for the past decade) that I've begun to take them for granted.
It doesn't help that the Flashes sometimes suffer an unlucky break in the MAC tourney and don't get invited to the dance, either. Most pundits think there is very little chance of that happening this year, thanks to the marquee Bracket Buster win, and I hope they're right. The MAC overall has been excellent, and the NCAA tournament will be much better with two MAC teams in it.
Not that I'm wishing for KSU to lose in the MAC final, mind you, but if that's what it takes to get, say Western Michigan in as well, I suppose I'd take it. I do know for sure that I'll be watching the MAC tourney to catch a glimpse of outstanding players like Al Fisher (14 ppg, 4 apg), who has built himself into the keystone of Kent State's architecture during the conference run that has his team at 11-2, just ahead of those Western Michigan Broncs.
Second-leading scorer Mike Scott (13 ppg, 6 rpg) is one of those mid-major anomalies: a guy who's 6'7" and only 190 lbs., but who can score and rebound when he needs to. Also in true mid-major fashion, he's not afraid to step back for timely threes when the defense gives him space. Senior Forward Haminn Quaintance (10 ppg, 7.6 rpg) has been one of GMoney's players of note in the past few weeks, earning his keep with hard-nosed defense (2.1 blocks per game and a decided aptitude for the defensive rebound) and enough scoring to keep the opposing defense from ignoring him.
I won't lie - I'm not an impartial type, which is probably why I write blogs instead of newspaper articles. If the Golden Flashes are left out of the NCAA tournament picture this year, I am going to be pissed. They're exactly the type of consistent, dangerous team we all like to see (until they play against our alma mater, that is). So here's hoping that a televised road victory and a national ranking are enough to book their flight to the nearest regional. And heck, give us another MAC team, while you're at it, Selection Committee!
Vanderbilt 72 Tennessee 69 UT’s reign at #1 lasted approximately 29 hours, falling to Vandy in an upset that isn’t all that surprising when you factor in the rivalry plus the Memphis hangover. The elements (#1 team on the road, conference supremacy, in-state rivalry, private vs. public school, 14 technical fouls) involved in this one made it at the very least as intense as the Memphis-Tennessee game was. Vandy takes the lead as this seasons’s Oregon/Florida team (something that needs a better name, if anyones got any suggestions) Big man: Shan Foster 32 points
Missouri State 86 Drake 83 Could go either way with this one. Drake haters will point out that the Bulldogs have lost three of four in the Valley. I’ll lean towards the fact that the young Valley is vastly improving and that the Bulldogs have a gigantic target on their backs. Floor storming by Missouri State students well deserved.
Western Michigan 56 Northern Illinois 49 Just great to see NIU back in action for the first time since the tragedy.
Indiana 72 Ohio State 69 Dakich has mastered the three-point victory. Big man: Bassett, 23 points
BYU 70 New Mexico 69 (OT) Cougars lock up bid, Lobos remain on outside looking in Big man: NM’s J.R. Giddens, 30 points
Tennessee (25-2) at Vanderbilt (23-4) - 9pm, ESPN. Man, things sure are hoppin’ in Tennessee. The Vols take their triumphant #1 ranking from Memphis to Nashville tonight, where they’ll take on the up-and-down Commodores. History suggests that this will be a close game, and that the Volunteers might have a tough time of things. They’ve lost three out of the four times they played in Memorial Gym.
Also On:
Ohio State at Indiana - 7pm, ESPN Southern Illinios at Bradley - 7pm, ESPN2 Boston College at Virginia Tech - 7pm, ESPNU Oklahoma State at Missouri - 9pm, ESPNU
This will go down into the STF Rulebook as example #1 of how not to storm the floor. If you haven't heard about this by now, here is the run down. Arkansas Pine Bluff is at home and trailing fellow SWAC competitors Texas Southern by three points only a few seconds remaining. APB tosses a desperation shot from quarter court and hits it, knotting the game at 68-68 with no time reaming and the exuberant fans stormed the floor in celebration............of a tie.
The floor storming resulted in a technical on the Golden Lions (APB) and two free throws for TSU before overtime even began. TSU hit both and lead 70-68 before OT even started. And, as you probably figured by now, the free throws ended up costing the Golden Lions, who lost the game by one point, 77-76. We are still awaiting reports to see if the fans stormed the floor even in defeat.
For those of you are just dying to root for Tennessee, but couldn't because they were severely lacking in the dorky white shooting guard who has his own music video department.... today is your lucky day. Now, let's get it on....
The purpose of "Remember My Name" has always been to shine a little light on the great players we don't see much of. Since I don't see much of them, either, I have to pick them out based on their ability to lead statistical categories over the course of the season.
One such player is Devin Gibson of Texas-San Antonio. He leads the NCAA in steals, swiping 3 1/2 balls every game (That must be awkward when he swipes half a ball - I've seen some quick hands, but never quick enough to rend the leather). He's also the second-leading scorer on the Roadrunner team, behind Junior Travis Gabbidon by fractions of a point. He has a "handle" on all of the important guard skills, having handed out double-digit assists on three separate occasions as well. Oh, and he also managed 10 rebounds in an early season beatdown at the hands of big brother team Texas.
The most impressive thing about Devin is his age. He's been a true freshman leader for the Roadrunners, who challenged early in the Southland before going on a five-game conference losing streak that leaves them at their current 6-6 league mark. With both Gibson and Gabbidon returning next year, the team in general should be a force to be reckoned with. The only chance we have to see Devin in person is tenuous - the Roadrunners would have to reverse course and make the Southland championship game. That's not likely, but at least we know Devin will have three more years to make his mark.
Game of the Night Texas (23-4) at Kansas State (18-8) 9:00 p.m. ESPN
The hottest team in the Big 12 takes on the hottest player. Both of these teams have beat my alma mater this season, and I'm still psyched to see them play. Nobody knows who will step up for Texas tonight, but everybody knows who will come up big for the Wildcats. By the way, Beasley has passed Carmelo Anthony as the NCAA freshman with the most double-doubles. And counting.
Also Intriguing
Marquette at Villanova 7:00 p.m. ESPN
The Wildcats have seemingly risen from the dead and now back into bubble discussion. A win tonight over a hot Marquette squad tonight and the Wildcats are probably right on the cusp of the bracket. A loss? Back to the coffin...
San Diego at Saint Mary's 10:00 p.m
Quick turnaround for the Gaels, who will be looking to avoid dropping any further down the bracket against a Toreros squad that beat them in January. Can't look ahead to upcoming showdown with Zags.
Evanston, Illinois was part of Hoosier country last Saturday night. And Dan Dakich, of all people, was king.
Dakich led the Kelvin Sampson-less Hoosiers to an extremely ugly 85-82 against Northwestern, despite rumors of a possible player boycott (which were bogus from the start) and an incredible 37-point performance from the Wildcats' Kevin Coble. Dakich's debut wasn't pretty, but it got the job done - and is just the beginning of the post-Sampson era, a time in which Hoosier fans and players will struggle to shed the burden left behind by the former coach.
When Dakich strolled onto the Welsh-Ryan Arena court just moments before tip-off, I got chills. It wasn't because of his high school science teacher appearance or his ever-growing bald spot, but rather the ovation he received from the overwhelming amount of Hoosier fans in attendance. The former IU player walked with his head down for most of the trek to his bench before peaking up to catch a glance of the sea of crimson. The response took control of him. All of the sudden Dakich brightened up, cracked a smile and threw his arm up in the air. Hoosier nation had officially welcomed and accepted Dan Dakich as its (interim) coach, and he knew it.
When IU re-hired Dakich this past summer as its Director of Basketball Operations, I applauded the move - the Hoosiers had "one of their own" sitting on the bench, though not as head coach. Dakich brought with him an impressive resume (come on, a winning record at Bowling Green?) and an overall fantastic knowledge of basketball, especially that of Indiana University. So when Kelvin Sampson "resigned" as head coach of the Hoosiers last week, it came as no surprise to me that Dakich got the call to take over. The fans, media and all of the so-called analysts in between called for a coaching search to take place during IU Athletic Director Rick Greenspan's week-long investigation. But what would be the point? This year, for the first time in several, the Hoosiers are seriously contending for a Big Ten title. They're hitting their stride at the right time (even a three-point win against Northwestern still counts) and have one difficult game remaining on their schedule (against Michigan State in East Lansing). A full-fledged coaching search right now makes absolutely no sense, and would only provide further distraction to a young and confused team.
Dan Dakich might not be the long-term answer for a downed Indiana basketball program. But for now, for the rest of this season - and if IU has any brains, the next couple of seasons - he's the man running the show. He's a great solution to a ridiculous problem that the Hoosiers can and will overcome in the long run. Instead of wearing blue shirts and red ties to games now, Hoosier fans should shave a spot in the back of their heads. Just don't ditch Dakich, folks.
Hop on the bandwagon with me, IU fans - there's plenty of room aboard. That is, unless Dakich's phone lines have been as busy as Sampson's were.
Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.
Approaching Lock These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.
Clemson[18-7(7-5), RPI: 23, SOS: 29, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-5] Though Clemson's overall profile doesn't jump out at you it looks like the Tigers will be dancing this year. Part of it is the overall strength of the ACC. The number one ranked conference by RPI standards is sure to get at least four bids. The Tigers would be #4 at this point (though Miami is closing in) as Maryland has fallen back to the pack once again. Their numbers are solid and wins over Purdue (home) and Mississippi State (road) continue to look better by the day. COuple that with taking UNC to OT twice alongside a decent non-conf win at Alabama and it looks like Clemson's in barring a collapse. Even a loss to surging Miami (FL) this week wouldn't hurt so long as they finish strong (@Mary, @GTech, Va Tech)and have a decent tourney showing. My guess? A 2-2 finish with both losses coming this week.
Gonzaga [21-6(10-1), RPI: 33, SOS: 96, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-5] Gonzaga sits a win over St. Mary's next week away from officially punching their ticket, but even a loss will get them in provided they reach the tourney finals. I mean they just about have to as the WCC surely deserves two bids this year. The Zags worst loss was to Texas Tech in Alaska and even that's not quite a bad loss. No where near as bad as some of their fellow at-large hopefuls. They've got plenty of solid wins to prop up the resume if the Gaels sweep the season series, such as UConn, St. Joe's and WKU. Though I don't think it'll matter as they'll clip the Gaels at home and shift the pressure onto their shoulders.
Somewhere In The Middle These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.
Kent State [23-5(11-2), RPI: 29, SOS: 135, Vs RPI Top 50:2-2] I'd like to say the Golden Flashes are approaching lock, but they've still got a bit of work to do first. They should roll through Bowling Green, but both Miami (Oh) and Akron can knock them off. The latter especially as they must visit the Zips to close the regular season. If the Flashes win out, only an early tournament upset would keep them out of the dance this year as the overall profile is strong. They could survive an Akron loss with a finals loss, but it's better to be safe and complete the season sweep of the Zips to shore up their bid.
Oklahoma [18-9(6-6), RPI: 28, SOS: 6, Vs RPI Top 50: 5-8) I'm still not positive the Sooners will get in, but they've got a relatively easy stretch run to make it happen. The worst losses on their resume are to Stephen F. Austin at home and Colorado on the road. The former of which doesn't look so bad as SFA's RPI sits inside the top 50 despite a second place standing in the Southland. The rest are "good" losses as they've come at the hands of teams like Memphis, Kansas and Texas. Majority of their wins have come against fellow bubbler's (such as Arkanasas, WVU, Baylor and Gonzaga) and their overall numbers are strong. A .500 conference finish should make it happen provided they don't suffer a bad conference tourney exit.
It Doesn't Look Good These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst. George Mason [19-9(11-5), RPI: 69, SOS: 128, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-2] Saturday's 2nd half disappearing act at Ohio all put the final nail in the Patriots at-large coffin. They've got a numbers of bad losses that include Delaware, East Carolina, and Georgia State. In addition they've got virtually no shot to catch VCU for the CAA regular season crown with just two to play and the same size deficit. It's officially auto-bid or bust for 2006's Cinderella and that's too bad for a conference that looked to be a two bid lock when the season tipped off. Oregon [15-12(6-9), RPI: 57, SOS: 11, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-8] It really just feels like the Ducks just don't want to return to the tournament after blowing 2nd half leads against USC and UCLA this past week. The latter of which would have helped a great deal, but either would have worked as they've now been swept by both team this season. With those two losses the Ducks need to win out just to reach .500 in league play. And even then a tourney birh is doubtful with losses to Nebraska and Oakland (Mich) weighing down their resume. Toss in their 3-8 RPI top 50 record and it looks like blown opportunity's will haunt the Ducks well into the summer if they don't find a way to steal the auto-bid. A feat I'd consider highly unlikely given their 1-7 record against the top of the conference.
Texas seems to have gotten over their case of the yips before anyone else in the conference, and they're riding high on the cusp of Championship Week. The top three in the conference have been holding relatively steady, though they do switch places from time to time. The more interesting part is the next two or three teams, who are all fighting to build an at-large profile good enough to get in.
Shall we?
Team With the Best Week: Nebraska This run is more than likely a case of far-too-little, far-too-late, but it cannot be denied that the Huskers are playing the kind of ball we felt they could at the beginning of the season. Aleks Maric and company have knocked off #25 Kansas State and #22 Texas A&M this week, running their conference record to 5-7. If the Huskers win three out of their last four (@ Texas seems like a bit of a stretch), and win a couple in the B12 tourney, do they merit our notice on Selection Sunday?
Team With the Worst Week: Texas A&M
This squad is listed in the dictionary under the word "streaky". They started the season 15-1 and solidly in the top ten. Then conference play handed the Aggies a three-game losing streak that ended after the epic 5OT battle with Baylor. Then it was five more wins, and now a poorly-timed three game donger. This team will make the dance, but their seed is going down the proverbial toilet.
Player of the Week: D.J. Augustin
This was a toughie. Michael Beasley is clearly the best individual player in the Big 12 and maybe the country right now. He scored 44 with 13 rebounds against Baylor. But his team lost twice this week. Augustin, on the other hand, is dishing out six assists per game to go along with his 23 point scoring average, and is helping his team win as a team. Results matter - it's Augustin in a split decision.
What to Watch
Texas @ Kansas State 2/25 - This is the last big regular-season road test for the Longhorns.
Kansas State @ Kansas 3/1 - Likely to decide second-place behind the burnt orange.
Texas A&M @ Baylor 3/5 - A battle with major NCAA tourney implications for slump-prone teams.
In the battle for seeding in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments, Baylor (Mizzou and A&M at home, Colorado and Tex Tech on the road) has the edge, while A&M (@ Baylor and OU, hosting Kansas) is going to have to slog through heavy fire.
Before we get into the bracket, some thoughts on the epic Tennessee-Memphis match-up. Just like every single college hoops writer/ fan out there, I'm feeling 100 times about Tennessee winning the national championship and 1o0 times worse about Memphis. The Vols can beat you in a fast-break high tempo game or a half court slow down game. And unlike last season, this team isn't totally reliant on the three (as shown by winning without Lofton hitting one). As for Memphis, I'm close to going one step further than Winn and not even including the Tigers as a team that can win the title. Not much of a chance they can beat three consecutive top tier teams with such streaky shooting. I'll hold off because you can never trust a Calipari team that thinks it's being disrespected. But the free-throw bug finally caught up with the Tigers on Saturday.
Miami (FL) - I can’t remember the last time a team went from “Solidly outside the bubble” to “Solid 8 or 9 seed” in one week.
UMass - In the A-10, you get a gold star for not losing during the week. Get nod over SJU and Rhody at this point.
Kent State - Win over Saint Mary’s makes us believe that the Golden Flashes will get an at-large bid if they reach the conference semis.
Texas - Horns are the hottest team in the nation and have a legit argument for #1 seed with wins over UCLA, Tennessee and Kansas
Arizona State - Huge win over at Washington should be enough to get the Sun Devils into the field for now
Baylor - Cardiac Bears won absolute must win game vs. Kansas State.
Back to the Bubble
Villanova - Buried about one month ago, Nova has won three straight and are back in bubble discussion with UConn victory.
Kentucky - Forget all the embarrassingly loses (Gardner-Webb, Vanderbilt), 9-3 in the SEC gets you into bubble talk.
UAB - Two-point win over Houston gives the Blazers the edge up for the possible second CUSA bid (don’t rule it out).
Bursting Bubbles
Rhode Island - Rams falling victim to the vicious A-10. They looked like an absolute lock just a month ago, but are probably just outside the bubble after losing twice at home.
Dayton - Officially on life supports after loses to LaSalle and Xavier
Syracuse - Follow up Gtown win with losses to LVille and Notre Dame. No shame in that, but Cuse now must win two of final three.
Ohio State - Can’t name an impressive win since November
Rising up the Bracket
Vanderbilt - Prediction: Dores top #1 Tennessee in hangover game this Tuesday.
Indiana - If they can regroup under Dakich and win the Big Ten, the Hoosiers will be looking at a 2/3 seed
Drake - Win at Butler providers legitimacy for the few remaining doubters
Falling Down the Bracket
Texas A&M - Seriously, no team is getting by with a less impressive resume than the Aggies. 19-7, losers of three straight and only a win over Texas to hang their hats on. My pick to be this year’s “surprising team left out of the Dance”, aka 2007 Syracuse.
Arkansas - Loss to UK means Razorbacks will need to sweep final four to get a bid
Duke - Righted the ship vs. St. John’s, but it is no God given right that the Dookies or UNC will get the #1 seed in the East if they win the weakened ACC.
Top 16 seeds
1 Tennessee (E) Memphis (S) UCLA (W) Duke (M)
2 North Carolina (W) Texas (S) Kansas (M) Stanford (E)
3 Indiana (M) Georgetown (E) Louisville (W) Xavier (S)
4 Purdue (E) Notre Dame (S) UConn (M) Drake (W)
Last Five In: Arizona State Saint Joseph’s Texas A&M UMass Florida
Last Five Out: Kent State Rhode Island Maryland Syracuse Ohio State (For more Bubble Talk, check out BD's Bubble Watch on Mondays and Fridays)
Last night was a great game. Despite what some consider to be a subpar performance from Memphis, they were with the Vols for the entire game, and neither Memphis' Derrick nor Tennnessee's J.P. Prince would let their teams lose. However, no one can deny that Memphis's free throw shooting was terrible.
There had been concerns about The Tigers' free throw shooting all season (4th worst in the NCAA), and experts believed it would eventually cost them a game. Last night, the Tigers were just 8-17 from the stripe, and 1-6 down the stretch. Many times, misses were the front end of one-and-ones. Robert Dozier was the only player to hit both of his free throws, and the only Memphis starter who shoots above 70% from the stripe, so he is exempt from ridicule. By contrast, Prince, a normally 46.7% free throw shooter, sunk both of his shots when the Vols absolutely needed him to do so.
The average free throw shooting percentage in the NCAA was 69.12% in 2006. If all that Memphis did was match that percentage for the 17 free throws we know they would have taken (minus the back end of one-and-ones), the Tigers would have hit four more free throws. Tennessee's margin of victory Saturday night? Four points. Certainly there are many other ways in which Memphis could have won this game (better rebounding, the three pointers not going cold, etc.), but free throws are the one aspect of basketball of which a team has complete control.
So in honor of the most talented and most free throw-challenged team in the nation, all of the Memphis Tigers (except Dozier) will be given honorary first team Brandan Wright All-Star status.
STF will begin its postseaosn coverage on Monday, April 14th with a season wrap-up and a coaching/player movement update. You can thank American Airlines for the delay.
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