STF Bubble Watch 2/25/08

Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.

Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.

Clemson[18-7(7-5), RPI: 23, SOS: 29, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-5]
Though Clemson's overall profile doesn't jump out at you it looks like the Tigers will be dancing this year. Part of it is the overall strength of the ACC. The number one ranked conference by RPI standards is sure to get at least four bids. The Tigers would be #4 at this point (though Miami is closing in) as Maryland has fallen back to the pack once again. Their numbers are solid and wins over Purdue (home) and Mississippi State (road) continue to look better by the day. COuple that with taking UNC to OT twice alongside a decent non-conf win at Alabama and it looks like Clemson's in barring a collapse. Even a loss to surging Miami (FL) this week wouldn't hurt so long as they finish strong (@Mary, @GTech, Va Tech)and have a decent tourney showing. My guess? A 2-2 finish with both losses coming this week.

Gonzaga [21-6(10-1), RPI: 33, SOS: 96, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-5]
Gonzaga sits a win over St. Mary's next week away from officially punching their ticket, but even a loss will get them in provided they reach the tourney finals. I mean they just about have to as the WCC surely deserves two bids this year. The Zags worst loss was to Texas Tech in Alaska and even that's not quite a bad loss. No where near as bad as some of their fellow at-large hopefuls. They've got plenty of solid wins to prop up the resume if the Gaels sweep the season series, such as UConn, St. Joe's and WKU. Though I don't think it'll matter as they'll clip the Gaels at home and shift the pressure onto their shoulders.

Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.

Kent State [23-5(11-2), RPI: 29, SOS: 135, Vs RPI Top 50:2-2]
I'd like to say the Golden Flashes are approaching lock, but they've still got a bit of work to do first. They should roll through Bowling Green, but both Miami (Oh) and Akron can knock them off. The latter especially as they must visit the Zips to close the regular season. If the Flashes win out, only an early tournament upset would keep them out of the dance this year as the overall profile is strong. They could survive an Akron loss with a finals loss, but it's better to be safe and complete the season sweep of the Zips to shore up their bid.

Oklahoma [18-9(6-6), RPI: 28, SOS: 6, Vs RPI Top 50: 5-8)
I'm still not positive the Sooners will get in, but they've got a relatively easy stretch run to make it happen. The worst losses on their resume are to Stephen F. Austin at home and Colorado on the road. The former of which doesn't look so bad as SFA's RPI sits inside the top 50 despite a second place standing in the Southland. The rest are "good" losses as they've come at the hands of teams like Memphis, Kansas and Texas. Majority of their wins have come against fellow bubbler's (such as Arkanasas, WVU, Baylor and Gonzaga) and their overall numbers are strong. A .500 conference finish should make it happen provided they don't suffer a bad conference tourney exit.


It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.

George Mason [19-9(11-5), RPI: 69, SOS: 128, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-2]
Saturday's 2nd half disappearing act at Ohio all put the final nail in the Patriots at-large coffin. They've got a numbers of bad losses that include Delaware, East Carolina, and Georgia State. In addition they've got virtually no shot to catch VCU for the CAA regular season crown with just two to play and the same size deficit. It's officially auto-bid or bust for 2006's Cinderella and that's too bad for a conference that looked to be a two bid lock when the season tipped off.

Oregon [15-12(6-9), RPI: 57, SOS: 11, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-8]
It really just feels like the Ducks just don't want to return to the tournament after blowing 2nd half leads against USC and UCLA this past week. The latter of which would have helped a great deal, but either would have worked as they've now been swept by both team this season. With those two losses the Ducks need to win out just to reach .500 in league play. And even then a tourney birh is doubtful with losses to Nebraska and Oakland (Mich) weighing down their resume. Toss in their 3-8 RPI top 50 record and it looks like blown opportunity's will haunt the Ducks well into the summer if they don't find a way to steal the auto-bid. A feat I'd consider highly unlikely given their 1-7 record against the top of the conference.

Look for more Bubble Watch on Friday.