If they had only had Ty Lawson, then their two best shooters wouldn't have gone 4-24, their halfcourt offense would have flowed better, they would have been able to stop Duke's spacing (and subsequent ability to take Hansbrough away from the basket), Greg Paulus wouldn't have hit any of his shots and the rebounding margin would have been bigger than +1. If they only had Ty Lawson.
In other news, the ACC season is halfway over and there is only a modicum of drama left in the league. Duke and UNC are the clear front runners, with about 6-8 teams having a chance at a strong second half and possible post season acceptance and the rest of the league is horrific. Yep, sounds like we are back to normal on Tobacco Road.
Instead of doing a usual weekly report, I am going to do a quick breakdown of the teams at this point (i.e. where they stand, chances of making the tournament, coaches who better be sprucing up their resumes, etc.)
Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks:
Duke -- Perhaps the most unusual team in the land. K has really flashed his coaching genius this year. A year after they said he has lost it, he has shown a cunning and adaptability that few others possess. Although a team full of shooters, its gonna be tough to get 6 guys to not shoot the ball well on any given night. A matchup nightmare and the clear leader on the race to the Raleigh/Charlotte NCAA bracket.
UNC -- The best player in the land and a lot of great complimentary pieces. Downright scary when they defend well and ignite one of the nation's most lethal fast breaks. Still a top 4 teams in most pundit's eyes. Built to go deep in the tournament and fueled by the Duke's 2 game lead, they could be eating up ACC opponents in the second half of conference play. If only Roy would learn how to make adjustments ;(
Should Make The Tournament ("Should" is the optimal word)
Clemson -- Deep, big and skilled, the Tigers can really disrupt the flow of most teams. Should they get an improbable win (based on historical repitition) in Chapel Hill this weekend, they could springboard into near-lock NCAAville. If they beat the teams they should the rest of the way, they are in. A victory or two in the ACC tourney would be good in the close proximity of Charlotte.
Maryland -- The NCAA committee is probably smart enough to realize that this is NOT the same team that lost to American earlier in the year. They are finally drinking some of that Gary Williams Ferocity Kool-Aid and already have a signature win against UNC. If their guards handle the ball and run the offense, the rest takes care of itself. Perhaps the easiest schedule (sans a game @ Duke) the rest of the way. If they aren't in the Dance, they only have themselves to blame.
Gotta Stop Beating Themselves
NC State -- Where did Brandon Costner go? A good win the other night, but they are gonna have to get on a serious tear (much like the end of last year) if they are gonna have a shot. El Sid needs to get his talented frontcourt to work together, or they have no shot. Gonzalez has played well (mostly) at the point. Gavin Grant needs to step up and be a leader. A long shot, but not THE longest shot. They get 3 of the 4 teams that are better than them (right now) at home, so take care of business.
People Still Believe In You, For Some Reason
Miami -- If you look at a lot of "reputable" sports sites, a lot of "experts" think that "if" the ACC can get "5" teams in the tournament, then "maybe/probably" the U will be it. "Not Likely." They were sitting on a gold mine coming in, but some uninspired play from their role players has led to a bunch of "close but no cigar" losses for the Canes. If Jack McClinton keeps up his campaign for All-ACC and the rest of the team plays hard, they "might" win enough games to get in, but its gonna be tough. Nah, forget it. At 2-6 in the first half of conference play, they are toast. No team with a losing record in the conference (and I don't see how they can avoid it) will get in the tournament. Unless Andy Katz wills them in with his telekinetic powers.
There You Go, Forgetting About Us...Again
Virginia Tech -- Every time I watch the Hokies, I fear for the other players on the court. They are lean, mean and feral. However, they are also very talented for a young team and people literally seem to be scared of playing them. Literally. Jeff Allen is a beast and Seth Greenberg has shown a true knack for both maximizing talent and generating passion/energy in his team. If not for K (yes, go ahead and call me biased) I would probably make Greenberg my coach of the year at this point. They still have a longgggggg shot (especially with no national press or landmark wins) but it can happen. I mean, the Giants beat the Patriots, right? My darkhorse to win the ACC tournament and get an automatic bid.
Back In Line for 2009
Wake Forest -- The Deacs are actually playing really well this year. They have two of the best freshmen you've never heard of (quick hands Jeff Teague and the awesome James Johnson) and the most improved player in the conference, Chas McFarland. However, you get the slightest feeling that the coach (and to an extent, the players) are really just waiting for next year when they bring in a superstar recruiting trio unlike any to ever arrive in Winston-Salem. They can give their coach, and their fans, a lot of confidence going into next year if they can finish strong and make the NIT, where they can surely do some damage, given the versatility of their lineup.
B.C. -- Up until about a week and a half ago, the Eagles were the clear cut #3 in the conference and were playing great. Then, reality happened. Now, they are meshed in with the rest of the pack, everyone has figured out their offense (Tyrese Rice or bust) and they can't seem to keep defensive juggernaut and swat-master Tyrelle Blair on the floor without picking up tons of fouls. This is still a young team as well. Al Skinner needs to drill a little more sense into them and find someone to get Rice off the ball more and get the rest of the team involved in the offense.
Georgia Tech -- These guys play tough. Are versatile. Have lots of interchangable parts. And, are well coached. Yet, they just cant seem to put together a winning streak. They are barely over .500 right now and looking like they may be running on empty. Injuries (and some surly attitudes) have kept them from being a cohesive team, but if there is 1 coach in the ACC who can turn it around, its Paul Hewitt. Just maybe not this year.
Welp, That Was Fun. See Ya Round
Florida State -- Leonard Hamilton is sort of the Isiah Thomas of the ACC. He takes on a lot of kids whose skills don't really fit and forces them to play his own brand of basketball, which is completely antithetical to their actual skill sets. He also finds the occasional diamond in the rough (Ryan Reid is a dynamite defender and rebounder), but on the whole, he does not have a clue how to make his team work. A lot of that comes from having about 20 combo guards, all of whom like to shoot and are allergic to passing. They have the talent, they just don't have the coaching or the discipline. Hamilton will be seeing pink slips in his dreams, no matter how the Seminoles fare from here on out. I wouldn't bet against VCU's Anthony Grant returning to Florida and taking this gig.
Virginia -- I am not even going to rip on Virginia. Mainly because they have one of my all-time favorite ACC players, Sean Singletary. He plays hard, has built up his draft stock every year, never given up on his team (even as they have given up on him) and will die trying to win a game. It's not his fault that Dave Leitao is just not a good talent evaluator or a great salesman that can lock up recruits early (before having to take whatever is left later in the year). I like Leitao and his teaching is strong, but I don't see how they can keep fan support, not to mention ticket sales to the new arena, up with this much losing. It ain't getting prettier any time soon. Another likely spot for Grant if Leitao is gone, but I suspect they might give him another year or two, even if that's not exactly the best decision.
So, we are going to have a great, albeit odd, second half of the ACC season. I expect plenty of more upsets, heartbreaks, buzzer beaters and brawls. It doesn't matter if you have no shot at the Tournament or are the front runner, you cannot take anything for granted in the ACC (god, I sound like Mike Hogwood). Regardless, its going to be a lot of fun from here on.
