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Bracket Racket 3/8
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Austin Peay vs
- TSU could be the first true Cinderella of March
- The play of
- If
- What team will emerge as the second team from the
- The second round of the CAA Tournament, a conference that has been wacky all season
Top 8 Seeds
1)
UCLA (W)
2)
Duke (W)
Last 6 in
UMass
St. Joe’s
Virginia Tech
Last 6 Out
Ole Miss
Here is a clip of the now famous Stanford block-foul at the end of the UCLA game last night. Imagine if this is the way that Duke-UNC ended? There would be full scale riots in across the state. Maybe it was a good ting that this game ended approximately 1:30 a.m. last night. And you know it's a bad call when the player who got "fouled" admits it was a clean block. The Lopez twins only have Michael Jackson CD's to console them today.....
Kelvin Sampson's banishment into the coaching hinterland following the Indiana scandal appears to have lasted all of about 13 days. The outstanding IU blog Inside the Hall is reporting (via the IndyChannel.com that Sampson has surfaced in San Antonio, hired by Spurs coach and close friend Gregg Popovich to be an advisor to the team...
The San Antonio Spurs have hired Kelvin Sampson as an adviser, days after he resigned as Indiana University men’s basketball coach amid allegations he committed major NCAA rule violations, 6Sports Director Dave Furst reported Thursday. Sampson was in San Antonio’s arena during the Spurs’ 108-97 win over the visiting Indiana Pacers. He is expected to advise the defending NBA champions for the next few weeks, Furst reported. Hiring advisers is nothing new for Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich. He has hired several coaches in this capacity through the years.
I LOVE THE SMELL OF MARCH BASKETBALL IN THE MORNING!!!11!1!
And with that, welcome to one of the last SEC Reports of this peculiar basketball season. I've certainly enjoyed bringing you them and I hope you've enjoyed reading them. And as long as the Eric and Marco want me around, I'm definitely happy to keep bringing them.
I also hope my UK fanhood didn't stand out too badly. With that, let's talk some SEC Basketball.
It was another interesting week in the SEC. The teams in the West, save Mississippi State, seem unwilling to do anything to address the modicum of control they have/had over their post-season destiny.
For the past couple of weeks, five, or perhaps six SEC teams have been mentioned in regards of making the NCAA Tournament. However, now that the dust of conference play is starting to settle, only Tennessee, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt are locks. The Arkansas Razorbacks are a probable/maybe while Kentucky and Florida reside firmly on the proverbial bubble.
At most, only two of these last three teams will make it. The one left on the outside, looking in will have an opportunity to play in Madison Square Garden... and hey, college-sponsored field-trips to New York City can't be all bad, right? ;)
Stop. Update time:
Team of the Week - Tennessee
Bruce Pearl's SEC Champ squad was the only team to win two games during this past week, dispatching Kentucky on Sunday and the Florida Gators Wednesday night in Gainesville. Wednesday's tough win gave the Vols their first outright SEC regular-season title since 1967. All that's left for Tennessee is a decent SEC Tournament showing and they should lock up a two-seed in the Big Dance.
Worst Team of the Week - Florida
Well, Gators. You've done gone and did it: you just may have played your way right out of the Big Dance and into the NIT. A first for a modern defending National Champion? To wit, Billy Donovan's young `uns have lost six of 10 and two-in-a-row during the week between the SEC Reports (To Tennessee and Mississippi State). Florida finishes the season in Lexington, as UK celebrates the last home game of Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford -- not the easiest environments to secure an NCAA Tournament-worthy win.
Player of the Week - Shan Foster
What can you say about Mr. Foster that hasn't already been said. His 42-point/3-pointer-to-win-the-game performance against Mississippi State Wednesday night can easily go down amongst the SEC's all-time best. While Vandy split this week, dropping one to Arkansas on the road (never the easiest place to play), Shan still put up 22 points while hitting six 3-point bombs to keep his team within reach at Fayetteville.
Against the Bulldogs, Foster hit nine from downtown. Folks, say "Hello" to your SEC Player of the Year.
Games to Watch
3/8 Vanderbilt at Alabama
3/8 LSU at Mississippi State
3/8 Ole Miss at Georgia
3/8 Auburn at Arkansas [ESPN Classic] 6:00
3/9 Florida at Kentucky [CBS] Noon
3/9 South Carolina at Tennessee
Remember, at STF, we are College Basketball. ;)
Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.
Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket. If they more or less haven't already.
UNLV [21-7 (11-4), RPI: 29, SOS: 69, Vs Top 50: 2-4]
The Runnin' Rebels guaranteed themselves a 2nd place finish at best with Wednesday's loss to New Mexico, but it's not a bad loss in the least and they remain on pace to reach the dance. It actually looks better as they host the conference tournament and are likely to only strengthen their schedule heading toward the semi's and (probably) finals. The worst loss came at Air Force (RPI: 176), but it wasn't nearly as bad as some other bubble candidates and with the MWC almost assured of two bid's their easily ahead of the Lobos for the 2nd slot right now. That could change though if they fall before a likely Semi's rematch with that same New Mexico team. If they reach the semi's though (as expected), even another loss to the Lobos (this time at home) shouldn't keep them out of the dance despite the lack of a signature non-conference win.
Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.
West Virginia [20-9 (10-7), RPI 37, SOS: 49, Vs Top 50: 2-7]
Though they missed on all of their big non-conference match-ups, each game was very close and the overall profile numbers are solid. The worst loss was to Cincinnati, but that only hurts because it took place at home (and was by 23 points). Outside of that they've only lost to a couple of fellow bubblers and the Big East's top tier. The latter of which have locked up tourney bids at this point. The big point of emphasis for WVU is the 10-7 conference mark that should move to 11-7 when the regular season ends on Saturday. If it doesn't and they finish 10-8 with a loss to St. Johns as the capper it'll leave some significant work to be done in the tournament, but they're unlikely to need a finals run to reach the dance. I'd say the semi's would lock it up for them, but as long as they avoid a bad exit in the first round they should be okay. Provided they take care of St. Johns anyway.
Baylor [19-9 (8-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 36, Vs Top 50: 4-8]
I like the Bears and I think they're more than deserving of a bid should they knock off Texas Tech on Saturday. Baylor despite their overall record hasn't lost but once outside the Top 50 and that loss came in Stillwater. A place the Jayhawks couldn't escape with a win, either. Their best win was at a neutral site over Notre Dame and they've also clipped A&M and K-State along the way. A win over Tech would give them another top 50 win and make it extremely difficult for the committee to leave them out should they fall to one of the league's top four in the tournament.
It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.
Stephen F. Austin [20-4 (12-3), RPI: 60, SOS: 253, Vs Top 50: 1-1]
While their overall numbers are horrendous for an at-large candidate I elected to look into SFA because they look like a tournament team to me. Sure they're likely to finish 2nd in the Southland despite knocking off Lamar in their only meeting and Nichols State (RPI: 249) is pretty much unforgivable. On the positive side? They've picked up nice road wins over Oklahoma and San Diego. One of which looks like a tourney lock. So while SFA looks like a tourney team when compared to their Southland compatriots their simply not when compared to the rest of the bubble squads. Even worse their not even NIT bound unless they overtake Lamar for the regular season title. Looks like auto-bid or bust for SFA, luckily for them I think they'll find a way to get it.
Houston [22-7 (11-4), RPI: 65, SOS: 148, Vs Top 50: 1-5]
For a while it looked like Houston was shaping up to prvide a truly boggling case to the committee as they'd lost to Memphis twice, but managed to win the rest of their conference games. That was, until they fell to UAB and the Blazers subsequently passed them in the pecking order. It only got worse after that as they fell to East Carolina (RPI: 248) on Saturday and essentially killed themselves. Having managed to beat only Kentucky during their number of solid non-conference chances the Cougars are in a heap of trouble. A heap so large I'm not even sure a conference finals loss to Memphis would get them in. It looks like auto-bid only for this squad, but it wouldn't be completely shocking if a semi's win over UAB and close loss to Memphis was enough. Though I consider it highly unlikely to be so at this point.
And then there was one. The Wisconsin Badgers have now (nearly) assured themselves the Big Ten title, after weeks of battling with the Hoosiers and Boilermakers. Unfortunately, it was kind of a weak finish to a somewhat interest and heated stretch of games for the three squads that culminated with the Hoosiers being absolutely demolished by Michigan State and Purdue bowing out to Ohio State on the road. But, after all, it's just the Big Ten, right? As we quickly approach the postseason, stay tuned - I'll be giving all of you loyal Stormers the rundown on the Midwest region for March Madness. Man it feels good to say that...
Team with the Best Week - Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers have now earned at least a share of the Big Ten title for the third time in seven seasons with their victory yesterday (and with Purdue and Indiana choking the big one lately). But regardless of how they did it this year, one thing remains clear - Bo Ryan is one hell of a coach. Sure it was a "down" year in the Big Ten, but Ryan got the absolute most out of his players, yet again, and has guided them to six straight wins heading into the season finale against Northwestern. Quite simply, the Badgers are the team to beat and won't be losing anytime soon.
Player of the Week - Brian Butch, Wisconsin. This is definitely the first time this season that Butch has received this award. He's had a solid year for the Badgers - not great - and has hit some big shots with games on the line (on the road against Indiana and Michigan State). Though his stats haven't been that impressive, it's the fact that this guy finally recognizes his role and plays it out that has impressed me the most. Mostly Butch just sits in the paint and waits for the occasional rebound before deciding that his home is beyond the arch, but I guess whatever he can do to help Bo and the Badgers is a good thing for them. The Badgers will certainly need Butch to man up in the next few weeks as they head into the postseason.
Team with the Worst Week - Indiana. The Hoosiers blew it. They absolutely blew it. With a Big Ten title (or at least a share of it) within their grap, the Hoosiers collapsed/fell apart/absolutely sucked against Michigan State up in East Lansing earlier this week. It was an absolutely pathetic showing by an uninspired and flat IU squad that will now be limping a bit heading into the postseason. The Hoosiers have been able to string together some wins in recent weeks, but they're not playing very impressive basketball whatsoever. Defense wins games (as the Badgers are finding out) - not the occasional defensive stop mixed with DJ White and Eric Gordon switching off on offense.
Bruce Weber Moment of the Week - TBD. Senior Day is coming up on Saturday for the Illini. How will Bruce send off the beloved Brian Randle and Shaun Pruitt? Hopefully with a few screechy words and a kick in the ass. But we shall find out soon enough.
Games to Watch - 3/6 Michigan State @ Illinois
3/8 Wisconsin @ Northwestern
3/9 Michigan State @ Ohio State
3/9 Indiana @ Penn State
3/9 Purdue @ Michigan
STF is here to confirm that around 10:30 p.m. last evening in Annapolis, Maryland, we had our first reported case of "March Madness".
Yes folks, Bucknell's John Griffin nailed a 40-foot shot at the buzzer in the thrid overtime to send the Bison to the 87-86 upset of #2 Navy. That's a good enough start for us....
Outside of the thrilling Bucknell win (Not going lie, I'm totally biased to the Bison), how about the rest of the Patriot Leauge results....
#1 American 62 #8 Holy Cross 60
#3 Colgate 76 #6 Lafayette 74
#4 Army 64 Lehigh 61 (OT)
Now that is an opening round. Let's hope that the Patriot opening round of upsets and thrillers is an indication as to what is about to come in the next month. And how about this....with Amry taking on American in the semifinals, we are assured of having at least one team that has never made the Dance in the Patriot League Finals. Yeah, I think I'm ready for March now....
I was going to retire Remember My Name for the season, since everyone you need to know is going to be showing up in tournament finals soon. But last night changed all that, as Bucknell senior John Griffin nailed a clutch 40-foot prayer to propel the Bucknell Bison past the #2 seed Navy Midshipmen in the Patriot League tournament.
By any measure, John Griffin has had one hell of a college career. The Philly native has been there for the great upsets that the Bison have put together over the past few seasons, and he's not about to let go now. He had this to say after the miracle finish:
It's all a little surreal. I can relax on the bus, take a deep breath. The only thing I know, I'm playing another game. That was the only goal. That's all it's about right now.
Tennessee 89 Florida 86
Gators lose out on golden opportunity to solidify a bid b blowing a 16-lead at home and several chances to send this game into OT. Vols have been staking on thin ice since Memphis win....
Vanderbilt 86 Miss State 85 (OT)
And your SEC Player of the Year is.....Shane Foster, 42 points. Dores a #4 seed baring meltdown in SEC tournament
Texas A&M 71 Baylor 57
Huge bubble win for the Aggies....and no OTs required!
Syracuse 85 Seton Hall 73
Cuse's final push towards a bid starts in Jersey.....
Miami (FL) 74 Boston College 61
Move Canes into the "lock" column
Oklahoma 68 Oklahoma State 56
Sooners probably a lock, Cowboys must have enjoyed their three day visit to the bubble
Kentucky 71 South Carolina 63
Even without Patterson, it's harder and harder to leave the Cats out if they keep winning conference games
Join the STF Bracket Challenge
Stay tuned for the Auto-Bid Watch
Team Of The Week - Arizona State. Though only one victory last week the Sun Devils put themselves firmly on the good side of the bubble with Saturday's win over Souther Cal. Despite the beating UCLA handed them Thursday. With the win they're on the verge of locking up a tournament bid one year after finishing 2-16 in conference. It's been a great year for ASU when you consider where they were at this time last year and with the Oregon schools on tap it appears the Sun Devils and fabulous freshmen James Harden will reach their goal. A truly fantastic coaching job by Herb Sendek.
Player Of The Week - Kevin Love. Nothing like a pair of double-doubles to go with a sweep through Arizona for one of the conference many freshmen stars. Kevin Love has been as good as advertised this season for the Bruins and I'm sure the best has yet to come with the season's largest stage looming just over the horizon. He's the ultimate weapon for the leagues best team as he can knock it down from the perimeter and get the tough buckets on the block as well. Regardless of how it all shakes out for UCLA though, I expect him to return next season and be even better. If you can imagine that.
Team With The Worst Week - Arizona. Their streak of winning one and losing two continued this week as they followed up their win at Washington State with a pair of home losses to USC and UCLA. Neither of which was terribly close and has placed this squad just as close to the fringe as their in-state rivals. Like those rivals, however, they've got the Oregon schools remaining on their schedule and have a great shot to reach .500 in conference with a two game winning streak. Without those wins (against Oregon State especially) they'll be sweating buckets come Selection Sunday regardless how good their computer numbers look. I think they pull it off as both Arizona squads sweep through Oregon and put the final nail in the Ducks coffin.
Games To Watch -
3/6 - Arizona State @ Oregon - Oregon's last shot to try and sneak in starts here.
3/6 (7) Stanford @ (3) UCLA - The Bruins look to strengthen their case for a #1 seed with a sweep of the Cardinals.
3/8 - Arizona @ Oregon - A virtual must-win for the 'Cats and their crumbling resume.
3/8 (7) Stanford @ USC - A win here locks in the Trojans, but could leave the Cardinals a seed line lower.
If you thought you had to wait until the Thursday/Friday first round NCAA games to start furtively checking your gametracker, you are wrong. The Atlantic Sun tournament is helpfully giving us a 3:15 game between Mercer (beat USC this year) and Jacksonville (has a huge anthropomorphic Dolphin as mascot) today.
Jacksonville is the #2 seed in the A-Sun, thanks to a stellar 12-4 conference season. Their craptastic 16-12 overall record has a lot to do with the mid-major curse: they played the entire month of December on the road, and lost every danged game. Mercer, as mentioned, made big noise by beating Southern Cal in L.A. their first game out, but lost more than they won in conference play, landing them in the bottom half of the A-Sun.
If you don't know who to root for, or just don't care, weigh this in your considerations: NBA legend Artis Gilmore is a Jacksonville Dolphin, and their logo is extremely cool. Not that I'm advocating one team over the other, you understand. Just providing useful information.
Ohio State 80 Purdue 77 (OT)
Buckeyes pick up first marquee victory of the season, now enter the field of 65 despite the collective yawns of college basketball fans
Ole Miss 81 Arkansas 72
Rebels rise up from the dead and may be back on the bubble....possibly taking the Razorbacks' place
Virginia Tech 80 Wake Forest 58
Root for VT.... they are one of the only teams that is actually playing its way into the tournament.
New Mexico 59 UNLV 45
Huge home win by the Lobos, MWC could get a surprising three bids
North Carolina 90 Florida State 77
UNC-Duke on Saturday will be the East #1 seed
Texas 70 Nebraska 66
Huskers slim postseason hopes destroyed in close lose in Austin
Join the STF Bracket Challenge!
Stay Tuned for the Auto-Bid Update later in the afternoon!
1. Belmont
2. Jacksonville
3. Stetson
4. East Tennessee State
5. Lipscomb (hosts final)
6. Gardner-Webb
7. Mercer
8. Campbell
Atlantic Sun Championship - March 8
1. UNC-Asheville
2. Winthrop
3. High Point
4. Liberty
5. VMI
6. Coastal Carolina
7. Radford
8. Charleston Southern
Ohio Valley Championship - March 8
Cornell-regular season champ as of 3/1
As you might expect from a site that has been covering college basketball since September, we get pretty geeked up about March Madness and all thing bracket related. So with that, we officially invite everyone to compete in the 1st Annual STF’s Bracket Challenge.
Same rules apply as with most bracket pools (minus the money). We are going with Yahoo brackets this year, since they tend to be pretty reliable and we have a few friends working there now.
Here is the link to sign up (You'll need a Yahoo account)
http://tournament.fantasysports.yahoo.com/t1/register/joinprivategroup_assign_team?GID=20519&P=password1
Group Name: Storming The Floor...
And just like last season on JCMJ, we will have a secret entry just to prove how little any of us know about anything. Following in the penny’s footsteps (which freaking picked Ohio State to reach the championship game last season), everyones bracket will be going up against a bracket from Eric’s five-year-old son Jackson.
We even have prizes for this thing, which may or may have all come from the my closet/basement....
1st: Autographed basketball from Dick Vitale (won at auction three years ago) plus STF T-shirt
2nd: Pair of Size 10 Syracuse Nike Air Dunks (received at Pitt-Syracuse game) plus STF t-shirt
3rd: STF T-shirt
Last Place: STF T-shirt
Best Bracket Name: STF T-shirt
That’s about it, we’ll have further update as we get closer. Jackson's picks will be made available right before the start of the tournament. Feel free to hit us up with any emails. Good luck!
Watching a couple of guys talk about their alma mater's basketball team is probably about as fun as listening to someone describe their fantasy football roster. But a recent conversation I had with a friend of mine from my college days at Kansas brought up a question that I don't have an answer to: does it matter if your team is outwardly passionate about the game? Or is it good to have some cool heads who stay calm within the flow of a tight game?
Here's a snippet of the email convo between my friend Monte and I. Monte is one of the all-time greatest sports hecklers I have ever known, so his opinion matters to me:
Monte: I really have no read on this KU team. I agree that they have the tools to make a Florida-like run, but they sure the hell aren't showing the signs of it. When is the last time we actually played well? It's been awhile. The way this season has gone, I have a tough time seeing them put it together for 6 straight games.
Me: I told my dad today that I felt like the team was so bland. You see energy from Jackson and Chalmers, and on Saturday, from Kaun, but everyone else looks like they're clocking in at the box factory.
Monte: Very good point. Brandon Rush looks like you could give him $10 million or punch him in the nuts and he would still have that "Eh...whatever" look on his face. I guess that could be a good thing at times, but it's much easier to get behind guys that look like they really give a shit. I'm not saying Rush doesn't, I'm just saying it's tough to tell. With Jackson, you pretty much know that dude is going balls out.
Kansas 109 Texas Tech 51
Holy hell! Jayhawks peaking at exactly the right time. Pat Knight is racking up the 40 point losses in the early career.
West Virginia 76 Pitt 62
Alexander's 32 helps WVU wrap up bid. Panthers should send thank you note to Syracuse, or this team would be total free-fall right now
Gonzaga 88 Santa Clara 54
Zags wrap up top seed in WCC Tournament, remain quietly lurking.......
Virginia 76 Georgia Tech 74
Cavs win battle of ACC's most disappointing teams
And yes, conference tournaments kick off today. We'll keep updated on the unofficial start of the madness
Tonight’s Big Game
Pitt (21-8) at West Virginia (20-9) - 7pm, ESPN. Both teams are now 9-7 in the Big East, and both are considered bubble teams. Some say Pitt is already in, so the onus is on the home team to make their case and simultaneously throw some doubt on a hated rival. To borrow one of the best blog names ever: We Must Ignite this Couch! (sad story, incidentally). Also one of the all-time great rivalry names, The Backyard Brawl.
Also On:
South Carolina State at Florida A&M - 8pm, ESPNU
Texas Tech at Kansas - 9pm, ESPN
Loyola Marymount at San Diego - 10pm, ESPNU
Santa Clara at Gonzaga - 11:30pm, ESPN2
Strange days for the Ivy League. First, Cornell became (as pointed out by Whelliston) the first team team not to begin with a “P” to win the league title in 20 years.
Secondly, and more surprising, is that a recruiting scandal looks like it may surfaced at Harvard. Yes, you just read the last sentence correctly. Recruiting scandal at Harvard.
“Harvard’s athletic director, Bob Scalise, acknowledged that Amaker’s staff had recruited some players with lower academic profiles than the previous staff had, but he stressed that no athletes had yet been admitted. “It’s also a willingness to basically say, ‘O.K., maybe we need to accept a few more kids and maybe we need to go after a few more kids in the initial years when Tommy is trying to change the culture of the program,’ ” Scalise said last week. “It’s a willingness to say that we really do want to compete for the Ivy championship.”
I’m guessing that eyebrows were raised when it was reveled that Harvard had a Top 25 recruiting class!! Yeah, seriously, that might bring about some questions. They may have the brains in Cambridge, but they apparently have yet to master the whole concept of cheating.
Yes, the fans in College Park and Syracuse are quite upset with their teams’ recent collapses over the weekend. We have no idea which was worse personally, only that right now both fan bases think that their bubbles just burst. Thing is, with the worst bubble in recent memory and so many bubble teams doing everything possible not to make the tournament, neither the Terps or the Orange are realistically out of the running for an at-large after this weekend. Which is shocking when you sit down and think about it. So keep your heads up Orange and Terrapin fans, still plenty of opportunities for your team to let you down in the next two weeks!
Bracket Winners
Mississippi State - Clinch SEC West with win over Florida, can now worry about getting a 6/7 seed.
Illinois State - Absolutely huge win over SIU, looking very much like an at-large team thanks to so many bubble Ls over the weekend
Vanderbilt - Arkansas loss is somewhat excusable and not too damaging…win against Tennessee has the surging Dores thinking top 4 seed
Arizona State - Huge second-half win against USC basically seals up the bid for Sun Devils
UAB - I guess? With the way the bubble is this year, the Blazers could soon be a lock thanks to almost beating Memphis
Davidson - Finish 20-0 in the SoCon, no possible way this team is being left home is if they lose in the conference tournament.
Back to the Bubble
Virginia Tech - Hokies get the award for slowest moving surge into the bubble in history. At no point while watching the Hokies did I believe I was watching a tournament team, but they move past a reeling (who they swept) of Maryland at this point.
Kentucky - Of all the bubble teams that lost this weekend, Wildcats had the most impressive defeat with three point loss to Tennessee. That is basically as good as a win on the bubble this season.
Texas Tech - Sure, why not? Wins over Texas and Texas A&M. Losses to umm….Centenary. Yeah, let’s just forget this
Bursting Bubbles
Syracuse - Literally gave away a must-win game away on Saturday. Now must beat Seton Hall, Marquette and win
Saint Joseph’s - Hawks bubble may have burst as Temple fans stormed the Palestra floor.
Maryland - Blown 20 point lead to Clemson rivals Cuse chokejob
Houston - Automatically disqualified from the Dance if you lose to East Carolina
Texas A&M - Automatically disqualified form the Dance if you only score 37 points in a game
Ohio State - Blown out at Minnesota
Kent State - As Suss cheers, Golden Flashes have to feel like they let a sure-fire bid slip away in loss to BG
Rising up the Bracket
Louisville - Cards tied for first in the Big East,. America’s soon-to-be sleeper team will be #2 seed if they win the Big East
BYU - Cougars have all but locked up the bid, now can focus on 6/7 seed.
Clemson - Relax, Tiger fans, you team is in for real this season. We promise.
Falling Down the Bracket
Washington State - Cougars fail to hold on to big lead at Stanford, have failed to win all big games since Gonzaga victory.
Pitt - Given a gift from Syracuse, still looking like an 8/9 latley.
Kansas State - Looks like this team peaked in January.
Top 16 seeds
1 Tennessee (M)
Memphis (S)
UCLA (W)
North Carolina (E)
2 Duke (M)
Texas (S)
Kansas (E)
Louisville (W)
3 Stanford (M)
Georgetown (S)
Wisconsin (W)
Xavier (E)
4 Purdue (S)
Notre Dame (E)
UConn (M)
Vanderbilt(W)
Last Five In:
UMass
UAB
Illinois State
Kentucky
Texas A&M
Last Five Out:
Florida
Syracuse
Kent State
Maryland
Virginia Tech
(For more Bubble Talk, check out BD's Bubble Watch on Mondays and Fridays)
Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.
Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket. If they more or less haven't already.
BYU [23-6 (12-2), RPI: 25, SOS: 89, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-3]
The Cougs look like they'll be dancing this year as they've clinched at least a share of the MWC title. With Wyoming and TCU left it looks like they'll clinch it outright (though a TCU loss is possible) and all but officially punch their ticket. The worst loss is probably the road beat down at Wake Forest, but that looks better than it did a few weeks ago and the Deacons RPI sits inside the top 100. Both conference losses came on the road to the MWC's other at-large hopefuls so neither hurt the RPI much. The neutral site win over a rapidly climbing Louisville looks better and better by the day. Barring a sizable collapse the Cougars are in.
Miami (FL) [20-8 (7-7), RPI: 26, SOS: 24, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-3]
The 'Canes are looking very good at this point after avoiding what would have been a devastating loss Saturday against Virginia. Their numbers are fantastic for an at-large bid and with their final two outside the top 50 their worst possible finish there is .500. Far superior to that of many of their fellow bubble boys. I think they're in right now, but if they win their last two (BC, @FSU) and finish 9-7 it's a virtual lock.
Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.
South Alabama [23-5 (16-2), RPI: 28, SOS: 139, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-2]
I'd to put the Jaguars into the "Approaching Lock" category, but you never really know what the committee might do with a perceived "Mid-Major". On paper they're looking a whole lot like a lock should they reach the Sun Belt tourney finals and fall to Western Kentucky. That's all they've got left to do though as their regular season has come to a close. The top 50 record is nice and they've got a win over Mississippi State as well as a close loss to Vanderbilt in double-overtime. It looks like the resume of a tournament team, but could they withstand a tourney finals loss (at home) to anyone other than the Hilltoppers?
Arizona State [18-10 (8-8), RPI: 66, SOS: 60, Vs RPI Top 50: 5-6]
Saturday's 14-point win over Southern Cal has the Sun Devils in great shape to finish 10-8 in conference and reach the dance a year after finishing 2-16 out west. They've got the Ducks and currently defeated Beavers left to make it happen. Both very winnable road games. Their lone non-conference bright spot was a 22-point throttling of Xavier, but that's coupled with bad losses to Illinois and Nebraska (neutral and road). Provided they avoid the death knell and lose to Oregon State they're in good shape whether they beat the Ducks or not. I'm forecasting that 10-8 finish though, and at least one tourney win as they get in as the league's 6th team.
It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.
Kentucky [16-11 (10-4), RPI: 59, SOS: 18, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-5]
Kentucky's tourney push has been a strong one in conference, but they finished 6-7 out of conference and missed against every one of their quality opponents. Not to mention those two home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego. Neither of which were terribly close. They split with Vandy and Tennessee, but the loss to Vandy was by 41. Hardly the margin you'd expect of a tournament team. Things got even worse though as they've lost Patrick Patterson for the season and are going to need a strong finish without him to make the committee believe in this Paterson-less team. They can still get in with a 12-4 finish (@USC, Florida) and a tourney run that ends in the Semi's at the least.
