STF Bubble Watch: 2/29/08

Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.


Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.

USC [18-9(9-6), RPI: 39, SOS: 23, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-7]
With last night win at Arizona it looks like the Trojans will be dancing again this year. The only bad loss on the entire resume came in the season opener to Mercer at home and as bad a loss as that was it seems the Trojans have done enough to overcome it. They've notched wins over SIU, Oklahoma, Arizona State, @UCLA and a season sweep of both Oregon schools. They'd probably be best served to knock off Cal next week, but they can afford losses @ASU and to Stanford and still reach the dance regardless of their tournament showing.

Kansas State [17-9(8-5), RPI: 42, SOS: 18, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-4]
Despite dropping their last three games I believe the Wildcats will sneak into the dance. Of course, this is assuming they win their final two games after falling to Kansas tomorrow night. Those wins (Colorado, @Iowa State) would get the 'Cats to 10-6 in the Big 12 and likely lock them into a 3rd place conference finish. Toss in a "need" for the country's best player to reach the dance and things look even better for the 'Cats. It's must win in those final two though, as the nonconference schedule looks bad in more than a few spots. It surely helps that the Aggies are sliding, but on top of the regular season finish I'd recommend a solid tourney showing just to be safe for the Wildcats.

Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.

Texas A&M [20-7(7-6), RPI: 43, SOS: 77, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-4]
What once looked like a slam dunk continues to get dicier and dicier by the day. Having just put their second 3 game losing streak to an end with a blitzing of Nebraska on Wednesday the Aggies can get back on track and reach the NCAA's despite their sinking numbers. It's not oging to be easy though as the Aggies close with three very losable games (@Oklahoma, @Baylor, Kansas) and an 0-3 record would put them in a very tough spot entering the conference tourney. They'd probably need to reach the tournament finals in order to steal an at-large bid with a 7-9 conference finish and nothing really to lean on in the nonconference.

It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.

Ohio State [17-11(8-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 31, Vs RPI Top 50: 1-9]
The Buckeyes, like the Gators, may miss the tournament a year after reaching the finals last time out. Said failure on OSU's part leaves the Big Ten capped at four teams, but their omission is very much warranted at this point. They've beaten absolutely no one but the Gators this year and that one doesn't carry any weight. Each of the three tourney caliber teams they played in the nonconference beat them pretty handedly (Butler, UNC, and Tex A&M) and they've suffered a pair of abhorrent losses. Most notably to 9-19 Michigan to kick off their current 3 game losing streak. To reach the dance they'll probably have to win out, but I doubt they can topple Purdue. Though they'll likely knock off the road princess's from East Lansing when they come calling in the finale. After that it'll take a deep tourney run the includes wins over at least two of the conference's top four. Otherwise we would be looking at a tournament without half of last years final four.

Dayton [17-9(5-8), RPI: 37, SOS: 25, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-3]
After starting the season 14-1 and picking up wins over Pittsburgh (home) and Louisville (road) the Flyers looked to be on the fast track to at-large lock status. Since then, however, their 3-8 and have fallen to 11th (of 14) place in the A-10 standings. On top of that their best case scenario is a .500 league record that may not be enough. The big questions is how much weight will the committee give the injury to Chris Wright? A lot, maybe, if the Flyers make a deep conference tourney run after Wright returns and fall in the tournament final. Otherwise It's difficult for me to see the Flyers getting in right now. Not to mention Wright's far from a guarantee to return when the A-10 tourney kicks off.