STF Bubble Watch: 3/7/08

Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.


Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket. If they more or less haven't already.


UNLV [21-7 (11-4), RPI: 29, SOS: 69, Vs Top 50: 2-4]
The Runnin' Rebels guaranteed themselves a 2nd place finish at best with Wednesday's loss to New Mexico, but it's not a bad loss in the least and they remain on pace to reach the dance. It actually looks better as they host the conference tournament and are likely to only strengthen their schedule heading toward the semi's and (probably) finals. The worst loss came at Air Force (RPI: 176), but it wasn't nearly as bad as some other bubble candidates and with the MWC almost assured of two bid's their easily ahead of the Lobos for the 2nd slot right now. That could change though if they fall before a likely Semi's rematch with that same New Mexico team. If they reach the semi's though (as expected), even another loss to the Lobos (this time at home) shouldn't keep them out of the dance despite the lack of a signature non-conference win.


Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.

West Virginia [20-9 (10-7), RPI 37, SOS: 49, Vs Top 50: 2-7]
Though they missed on all of their big non-conference match-ups, each game was very close and the overall profile numbers are solid. The worst loss was to Cincinnati, but that only hurts because it took place at home (and was by 23 points). Outside of that they've only lost to a couple of fellow bubblers and the Big East's top tier. The latter of which have locked up tourney bids at this point. The big point of emphasis for WVU is the 10-7 conference mark that should move to 11-7 when the regular season ends on Saturday. If it doesn't and they finish 10-8 with a loss to St. Johns as the capper it'll leave some significant work to be done in the tournament, but they're unlikely to need a finals run to reach the dance. I'd say the semi's would lock it up for them, but as long as they avoid a bad exit in the first round they should be okay. Provided they take care of St. Johns anyway.

Baylor [19-9 (8-7), RPI: 39, SOS: 36, Vs Top 50: 4-8]
I like the Bears and I think they're more than deserving of a bid should they knock off Texas Tech on Saturday. Baylor despite their overall record hasn't lost but once outside the Top 50 and that loss came in Stillwater. A place the Jayhawks couldn't escape with a win, either. Their best win was at a neutral site over Notre Dame and they've also clipped A&M and K-State along the way. A win over Tech would give them another top 50 win and make it extremely difficult for the committee to leave them out should they fall to one of the league's top four in the tournament.

It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.

Stephen F. Austin [20-4 (12-3), RPI: 60, SOS: 253, Vs Top 50: 1-1]
While their overall numbers are horrendous for an at-large candidate I elected to look into SFA because they look like a tournament team to me. Sure they're likely to finish 2nd in the Southland despite knocking off Lamar in their only meeting and Nichols State (RPI: 249) is pretty much unforgivable. On the positive side? They've picked up nice road wins over Oklahoma and San Diego. One of which looks like a tourney lock. So while SFA looks like a tourney team when compared to their Southland compatriots their simply not when compared to the rest of the bubble squads. Even worse their not even NIT bound unless they overtake Lamar for the regular season title. Looks like auto-bid or bust for SFA, luckily for them I think they'll find a way to get it.

Houston [22-7 (11-4), RPI: 65, SOS: 148, Vs Top 50: 1-5]
For a while it looked like Houston was shaping up to prvide a truly boggling case to the committee as they'd lost to Memphis twice, but managed to win the rest of their conference games. That was, until they fell to UAB and the Blazers subsequently passed them in the pecking order. It only got worse after that as they fell to East Carolina (RPI: 248) on Saturday and essentially killed themselves. Having managed to beat only Kentucky during their number of solid non-conference chances the Cougars are in a heap of trouble. A heap so large I'm not even sure a conference finals loss to Memphis would get them in. It looks like auto-bid only for this squad, but it wouldn't be completely shocking if a semi's win over UAB and close loss to Memphis was enough. Though I consider it highly unlikely to be so at this point.