STF Bubble Watch: 3/3/08

Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.


Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket. If they more or less haven't already.


BYU [23-6 (12-2), RPI: 25, SOS: 89, Vs RPI Top 50: 2-3]
The Cougs look like they'll be dancing this year as they've clinched at least a share of the MWC title. With Wyoming and TCU left it looks like they'll clinch it outright (though a TCU loss is possible) and all but officially punch their ticket. The worst loss is probably the road beat down at Wake Forest, but that looks better than it did a few weeks ago and the Deacons RPI sits inside the top 100. Both conference losses came on the road to the MWC's other at-large hopefuls so neither hurt the RPI much. The neutral site win over a rapidly climbing Louisville looks better and better by the day. Barring a sizable collapse the Cougars are in.

Miami (FL) [20-8 (7-7), RPI: 26, SOS: 24, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-3]
The 'Canes are looking very good at this point after avoiding what would have been a devastating loss Saturday against Virginia. Their numbers are fantastic for an at-large bid and with their final two outside the top 50 their worst possible finish there is .500. Far superior to that of many of their fellow bubble boys. I think they're in right now, but if they win their last two (BC, @FSU) and finish 9-7 it's a virtual lock.

Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.


South Alabama [23-5 (16-2), RPI: 28, SOS: 139, Vs RPI Top 50: 3-2]
I'd to put the Jaguars into the "Approaching Lock" category, but you never really know what the committee might do with a perceived "Mid-Major". On paper they're looking a whole lot like a lock should they reach the Sun Belt tourney finals and fall to Western Kentucky. That's all they've got left to do though as their regular season has come to a close. The top 50 record is nice and they've got a win over Mississippi State as well as a close loss to Vanderbilt in double-overtime. It looks like the resume of a tournament team, but could they withstand a tourney finals loss (at home) to anyone other than the Hilltoppers?

Arizona State [18-10 (8-8), RPI: 66, SOS: 60, Vs RPI Top 50: 5-6]
Saturday's 14-point win over Southern Cal has the Sun Devils in great shape to finish 10-8 in conference and reach the dance a year after finishing 2-16 out west. They've got the Ducks and currently defeated Beavers left to make it happen. Both very winnable road games. Their lone non-conference bright spot was a 22-point throttling of Xavier, but that's coupled with bad losses to Illinois and Nebraska (neutral and road). Provided they avoid the death knell and lose to Oregon State they're in good shape whether they beat the Ducks or not. I'm forecasting that 10-8 finish though, and at least one tourney win as they get in as the league's 6th team.

It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.


Kentucky [16-11 (10-4), RPI: 59, SOS: 18, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-5]
Kentucky's tourney push has been a strong one in conference, but they finished 6-7 out of conference and missed against every one of their quality opponents. Not to mention those two home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego. Neither of which were terribly close. They split with Vandy and Tennessee, but the loss to Vandy was by 41. Hardly the margin you'd expect of a tournament team. Things got even worse though as they've lost Patrick Patterson for the season and are going to need a strong finish without him to make the committee believe in this Paterson-less team. They can still get in with a 12-4 finish (@USC, Florida) and a tourney run that ends in the Semi's at the least.