STF Bubble Watch 2/22/08

Every week until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and who we're looking at today.

Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.

Notre Dame [20-5 (10-3), RPI: 24, SOS: 75, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-4]
After last night's win over Pitt in South Bend it looks like the Irish may have sewn up their bid to the dance. Just about, anyway. They lack any terrible losses (their worst is to G. Tech at a neutral site by 1) and have protected their house as they still sit unbeaten at home thus far. Given their overall numbers I'd imagine even if they suddenly faded down the stretch (though unlikely as Louisville is their only tough road game left) the Irish could withstand it and still enter the Big Dance somewhere in the 4-8 range. My guess? They lose only to the Cardinal and finish with 15-3 conference mark and a legitimate claim for a 3 seed.

Michigan State [21-5 (9-4), RPI: 13, SOS: 51, Vs RPI Top 50:4-3]
Not long ago considered a "no doubt about it lock," and likely 3 or 2 seed the men from Lansing have been struggling a bit of late. Those struggles include ugly road losses to Iowa, Indiana and Penn State and a not so ugly one to Purdue as well. While still damn near a lock (hence the "Approaching Lock" listing) the Spartans could still play their way out of the dance if Wednesday's thumping of Penn State (at home) isn't a sign of things to come. They get their shot at a little revenge against Iowa tomorrow and even they produce another blowout it might just make their upcoming two (at Wisconsin and the return match with Indiana) irrelevant and firmly place the Spartans into the dance.

Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.

UMass [17-9 (6-6), RPI: 41, SOS: 30, Vs RPI Top 50: 5-2]
About a week or so ago I was asked if I had to pick only two A-10 teams because of some unforeseen finish which two would I take. Xavier was the obvious call and then I went with Rhode Island, as I felt like they had the best opportunity to finish strong. You can call that opportunity blown now, or you can wait and see if they salvage it Sunday. Anyhow, it now looks like UMass has the inside track for the 2nd bid in the A-10 after knocking off URI (on the road) last night. While they have their head scratcher to go along with St. Joe's loss to LaSalle (Fordham) they've put themselves firmly into the at-large picture with the win at URI. Still plenty of work to be done on top of it, but in a league that absolutely has to get two bids they look to have taken hold of the 2nd spot, for now. And this is despite their league standing and a season sweep at the hands of the Hawks.

Arkansas [18-7 (7-4), RPI: 34, SOS: 53, Vs RPI Top 50: 4-3]
Like most of the SEC the Hogs' case is an interesting one. They've got one especially bad loss (App. State in a virtual home game) one pretty bad loss (South Carolina at home) coupled with some pretty good non-conf wins Missouri, Baylor and VCU. In conference their best win to date was a home tilt against Mississippi. Other than that it's mostly games they should win that do much less than pad the resume a bit. They missed a great chance at Mississippi state last Saturday and will instead probably be forced to beat Vandy at home in in two weeks to feel any type of real comfort outside of winning the auto-bid. If they don't get that game, assuming their road struggles continue, they may be on the outside looking in come Selection Sunday given their 4 L's against the RPI 101-200.

It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.

Illinois State [18-8 (11-5), RPI: 52, SOS: 100, Vs RPI Top 50: 0-4]
ISU's emergence (as well as Drake's) this season is just another example of what makes the Valley one of the nation's best conferences. I say that, because, it seems as if every year any two teams can rise to the top of the Valley no matter what we thought before the season. The Redbirds, however, are about as far from the at-large picture as they can get without total dismissal right now. Making the Valley look a whole lot like a one-bid league if Drake wins the tournament. This is in large part due to one horrid non-conf loss to Eastern Michigan and a handful of recent losses in the Valley (including two exceptionally bad ones to UNI and Indiana State). Had they not missed their big chance last month against Drake they might still be clinging to a little more, but without it their going to need a lot to sneak onto the legitimate side of the bubble. Sweeping their final three games would be a start (Wright State, Creighton, @ SIU), but they might need to auto-bid even then to get in. An auto-bid that I'd be willing to bet falls to either Bradley or the Salukis if Drake falls short.