The Real Year of the Freshmen: Remember all of the fuss about how Greg Oden and Kevin Durant made 2007 the year of the freshmen? No discredit to how outstanding they both were last season, but the depth of this year’s freshmen class is remarkable and more deserving of the year of the freshmen label. How deep is this class? I could name five freshmen first team All-Americans (Indiana’s Eric Gordon, UCLA’s Kevin Love, Kansas State’s Michael Beasley, USC’s OJ Mayo , Memphis’s Derrick Rose) and only Tyler Hansbrough and Brian Roberts would have a legitimate gripe. Hell, you could even field the second team between Duke’s Kyle Singler, Vanderbilt’s AJ Ogilvy, Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless, Arizona State’s James Harden, Syracuse’s Donte Green and Jonny Flynn, Ole Miss’s Chris Warren, Texas A&M’s DeAndre Jordan, Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin, NC States JJ Hickson, Saint's Mary's Patty Mills, Villanova’s Malcolm Grant, Pitt’s DeJuan Blair and USC’s Devon Jefferson. Damn, that's a shitload of names.
The Rise of The Atlantic 10: Seemingly relegated to mid-majordom since John Chaney and John Calipari stopped strangling each other at Temple and UMass in the 1990s, the A10 is in the midst of a renaissance this season. Xavier has spent a majority of the season in the Top 25, Rhode Island is 14-1 with an outstanding one-two punch of Will Daniels and Jimmy Baron. Dayton made headlines with upsets of Pitt and Louisville while Brian Roberts is becoming a Sportscenter regular. Even UMass has impressive victories over Houston and Syracuse and an RPI of 16. We asked friend of the program Joe Lunardi (sometimes we like to namedrop) a few weeks back how many teams the A-10 can realistically expect come March?
“Looking ahead, three bids is realistic. Probably equal chances that it drops to two or jumps to four,” he said. Again, this was asked before Dayton thrashing of Pitt and Xavier resurgence, but I still think they end up with four.
It’s Going To Be a Looong Season: Here’s the good news for Kentucky, Louisville, Illinois and Maryland fans; Unlike college football, your season isn’t over just because you lost a few games early in the season. The bad news? Your teams suck. Harsh reality, but fans of these traditional Final Four mainstays should go ahead and make some alternate plans for March. Kentucky is off to a historically bad start, losing at home to Gardner-Webb and San Diego and was not even competitive in games against North Carolina and Indiana. Louisville is in the running for most disappointing team in America, losing to a god-awful Cincinnati team. Illinois is on a four-game home losing streak to the likes of Tennessee State and Penn State. Maryland’s home losses to American and Ohio have Gary Williams on the verge of Brittany Spears-type meltdown.
Wait, We Have a Basketball Team? - Need something to take your mind off that soul-crushingly depressing football season? Some schools that are coming off their worst seasons in their football histories may actually have something to cheer about on the hardwood. Schools such as Nebraska, Miami (FL) and Ole Miss, places that usually refer to basketball as “that sport to keep you in shape for football” are off to some of the most surprising starts in the nation. The Cornhuskers are 11-2 with impressive wins over Oregon and Arizona State. The Hurricanes will enter ACC play at 13-1, beating VCU, Providence and Mississippi State. But the Rebels of Ole Miss have everyone beat by going 13-0. Not sure who can keep it going through conference play, but it’s always nice to see some life in dormant programs.
Broken Glass Slipper: In reality, is a team really a Cinderella if we are talking about them in October? Not so much. And many of the most talked about mid-majors in the preseason have had a hard time getting off the ground. Davidson, the mid-major hype king of the preseason, overscheduled itself out of an at-large bid. The Wildcats played hard, but lost to North Carolina, Duke, UCLA, NC State and Charlotte. Southern Illinois, the Valley’s mainstay in the tourney for seven straight seasons, is 6-8 and couldn’t score on a 7-foot rim at this point. And out of the CAA, the two previous tournament darlings, VCU and George Mason, have basically killed their at-large chances by dropping a combined 8 games already.
Five Questions We'll be Asking As Conference Play Gets Underway (From Eric)
Can Memphis remain unbeaten?
The Tigers took out Georgetown in one of the biggest tests of the early going. The most likely team to challenge them in the limp C-USA is a Houston team that is just not good quite enough to pull the upset. Still... this is college basketball. Games aren't won on paper.
Which mid-major conference will build the best at-large profile?
The CAA and the MVC grabbed every bid the money conferences failed to nail down over the past few seasons, but seem to be struggling with coaching turnover or league-wide parity this season. Since I have a hard time calling the A-10 a mid-major, my true pick is the Horizon, with dangerous teams like Butler, Valpo, Wright State and a plucky Illinois-Chicago bunch - currently the most efficient 3-point shooting team in America. The Horizon could, if the cards fall right, get three teams in, though the parity effect could mean that each mid goes to bed a little bit hungry in March.
Who can/will win the ponderous Big East?
There are 16 teams, so some anonymous middle-of-the-pack squad will probably show up in February and blow everything up anyway. But it cannot be denied that the preseason top teams have disappointed so far. Georgetown has no quality wins to ameliorate the sting of losing to a blazing Memphis squad. Syracuse and Pitt have suffered injuries and succumbed to some tough losses as a result. Villanova lacks experience. Louisville, once considered a Final Four contender, has fallen into a nasty slump.
On the other hand, Notre Dame is on an eleven-game winning streak. Marquette is solid, and West Virginia might-could start feeling sassy. Only DePaul and Cincinnati were bad enough to garner losing records in the early going, so only conference play will tell the true story here.
Can last year's dangerous mids prove that they have staying power?
The Butler Bulldogs whooped Old Dominion and Maryland before bowing to the champion Gators last year. They lost their coach but kept on rolling, losing only to arch-nemisis Wright State on their way to a top-25 ranking in 2008. So far, they're the only mid-major darling to build on their March '07 success.
Gutsy, scary Davidson displayed the sin of hubris, overscheduling their way to a 6-6 mark and a record littered with ACC foes who proved to be too strong (not to mention UCLA and two disappointing losses to Western Michigan and Charlotte). Southern Illinois has all of the pieces but can't figure out how to put them together, falling to 6-8 after following a similar path to ruin. Only Virginia Commonwealth - expected to thrive after Eric Maynor's dagger slew Duke last year - has pulled out of their tailspin, rolling up five straight victories after dropping three winnable games in November, notching wins at Maryland and at Bradley. A recent loss to James Madison may have brought them back to earth. All three need a good conference run in order to insulate themselves against any possible conference-tourney loss.
Which freshman phenom will come through when it counts?
With so many talented players to choose from in this class of frosh, it falls to us to wonder "which ones can get it done in March?" Marco and I agree that Michael Beasley at Kansas State is probably the best, but he doesn't seem to be able to single-handedly overcome the shortcomings of his team thus far. Flynn and Green will continue to amaze at Syracuse, but injuries to everyone else on the team have likely doomed their freshman campaign.
Derrick Rose at Memphis is a good bet to continue his excellent play, and his team is capable of covering for him on an off night, but he still commits way too many turnovers. Vandy's Andrew Ogilvy has injected a major dose of hope into the Commodores, and has yet to have a real off night. His countryman Patrick Mills at St. Mary's ain't exactly chopped vegemite, either. But the player who is truly indispensable to his team, and most likely to stay that way, is Indiana's Eric Gordon.
Now everyone's caught up. Let's go knock some heads in-conference!
1 comments:
Villanova fans knew that this year's frshman class was going to be something special, and we are all surprised how Malcolm Grant is out-performing his peers.
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