More on Saint Louis's historically bad night. This article comes from Ray Floriani, who can also be found at the Basketball Times and Hoopville. Enjoy!
By Ray Floriani
On the way home from an officiating assignment the stop was made for a quick cold one. The big screen TV flashed the score, George Washington 49 St.Louis 20. I thought Rick Majerus’ debut in the A-10 isn’t going too well. Giving up 49 at the half. Then a closer look told this was a final. Twenty points for the game. Reminded me of a girls CYO game I worked about a decade ago. A team took a 6-2 lead into the half, didn’t score the final half and won ! The final was 6-4.
I am very interested in and utilize statistical analysis in my college basketball coverage. When the score 49-20 flashed on the screen as a final, instantly the graphic (lowest offensive output since the shot clock institution in 1986) begged for analysis. Actually this offensive performance begs for statistical and maybe psychoanalysis (confidence ?).
The numbers show St.Louis had 54 possessions, a very slow pace. Even teams using the Princeton offense are in the sixties. Points divided by possessions give a .37 efficiency rating. We multiply that figure by 100 for a more workmanlike stat. In this case St.Louis was a 37 on offensive efficiency. The lowest I have encountered in two decades of research.
George Washington had 53 possessions and an efficiency index of 93. The 93 is fair. The high 90’s or 100 + is better to ensure a good chance of winning. Under 70 is extremely poor. A 37 is off the charts poor.
One silver lining… Should St.Louis go on a win streak and start to get complacent and take a little lax attitude in practice, Coach Majerus simply has to pull out the GW tape as a reminder.
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