STF Bubble Watch 2/19/2008

Though today is Tuesday, from now until the selection committee hands down the brackets we here at STF will be taking a look at the ever fluctuating bubble every Monday and Friday. We won't look at all bubble "worthy" teams every week, but we will change it up as the bubble shrinks and expands with each passing buzzer beater and blowout. If their are any teams you'd specifically like us to look into, feel free to drop a comment or e-mail me here. We'll be grouping the teams into three categories: "Approaching Lock," "Somewhere In The Middle," and "It Doesn't Look Good." Anyhow, now that you know what to expect, onto the bubble and what it looks like today.

Approaching Lock
These are the teams that sit one quality win or strong conference tourney run away from officially locking up their place in the bracket.

Saint Mary's (22-3(10-1))(RPI: 26, SOS: 160)(Vs RPI Top 50: 2-1)
Despite a horrendous strength of schedule the Gaels' resume looks good right now. Along with their 10-1 conference start they've notched quality non-conference wins over Drake, Seton Hall, Oregon and San Diego State. Each of their three losses were respectable road L's for almost anyone (Texas, San Diego, and SIU). Assuming the Gaels manage to finish the season among the top two of the WCC we feel like they could withstand even a pre-finals WCC Tourney loss and still be celebrating come selection Sunday.

Arizona (16-9(6-6))(RPI: 17, SOS: 160)(Vs RPI Top 50: 5-5)
The 'Cats provide one of the more interesting cases in the nation. They boast the nation's toughest schedule, that includes "good losses" to both Kansas and Memphis. The former a game they arguably should have won. Alongside those losses, however, is an amazingly bad one at home to ACC whipping boy Virginia as well as a sweep at the hands of fellow bubble boys Arizona State. It's obviously not all losses though if they're a near lock for the dance, and sure bet to get in if the season ended today. The 'Cats have also managed quality wins against Texas A&M, Houston, UNLV, and San Diego State. The real question left to answer is if a sub .500 Pac-10 finish would be enough without a deep conference tourney run. I'd lean toward yes, but I'm betting on a .500 finish to leave no doubt.

Somewhere In The Middle
These teams aren't in quite the murky waters of those below them, but even a short losing streak could leave them on the outside looking in.

Pittsburgh (18-6(7-5))(RPI: 19, SOS: 41)(Vs RPI Top 50: 3-3)
The Panthers are a tough team to get a read on given the rash of injuries they've had to deal with, including the loss of Senior Mike Cook for the season. Their other injured star - Levance Fields - made his return Friday night in an absolute thrashing at the hands of Marquette. Before injuries attacked this was a 10-0 team that had just toppled Duke. Their only atrocious loss came without Fields, but was at home to Rutgers (RPI: 208), who currently sits at 2-12 in the Big East and won't even sniff the conference tourney. Let alone the Big Dance. Looking at their numbers a +.500 finish should get the Panthers into the dance given the overall strength of the Big East. But I'm sure their fans wouldn't mind a marquee win, say, when Louisville comes to town on Sunday to strengthen the sweat glands a little when the bracket's are being handed out.

Rhode Island (20-6(6-5))(RPI: 29, SOS: 101)(Vs RPI top 50: 2-3)
The Rams are in an interesting spot, they've got a solid RPI, no abhorrent losses, nor any eye-popping wins, either. Yet, here they are sitting somewhere in the middle of the pack. Probably in today, but not by much, and could be out tomorrow if they don't finish their current home stand stronger than they started it last night (loss to Xavier). The rest of the home stand? Massachusetts and St. Joe's, two of the 4 other team's vying for at-large bids alongside them (in the A-10). Two wins and they're likely into the "Almost Lock" category and a certain lock should they avoid hiccups down the stretch against some of the A-10's cellar dweller's.

It Doesn't Look Good
These are the teams that are currently holding on for dear life to the bubble. One more bad bounce and their bubble just might burst.

Florida (19-7) (6-5) (RPI: 57, SOS: 118)(Vs RPI Top 50: 1-5)
The Gators lack any semblance of a marquee win, that is, unless you consider their thrashing of Vandy (at home) a marquee win (I don't). They've got a pile of losses, large and small, against fellow bubbler's Ohio State, Arkansas, and Mississippi, coupled with an especially bad loss to LSU at home. A look at their vomit-inducing numbers and there's really nothing that looks good. So it looks like, barring a winning streak that reaches the SEC tourney title game, auto-bid or bust for the 2-time defending champs.

Syracuse (17-10(7-7)) (RPI: 47, SOS: 13) (Vs RPI Top 50: 1-7)
Every time it looks like the Orange have put themselves on the steady side of the bubble they suffer a major setback. This time it was the loss to South Florida by double-digits, a loss that may have ended their season. Sure, they followed it up with a convincing win at home against Georgetown, but the damage was done and outside of that only their win over St. Joe's is notable. Add to that a questionable home loss to Villanova and road losses to other bubble squads Ohio State and West Virginia and it's not looking good at all. Frankly, it looks a lot like, despite a very strong schedule the Orange's bubble will be bursting again on Selection Sunday barring a 3-1 finish (@ND, Pitt, @SH, MARQ) and a solid tourney run.