In With the New - The Early Season Winners

As we near the day when we all must throw out our old calendars and spend a couple of weeks scratching out 2007 on our checks and writing in '08. It also means conference play starts in earnest in the NCAA, so we'll take a look at some of the surprising teams that have successfully weathered November and December and have themselves in good position to earn a March invite.

Dayton Flyers, 10-1

Signature Win: at then-#11 Louisville.

Remaining Tests: at #6 Pitt, Dec. 29, double-dips with #25 Rhode Island and Xavier in-conference.

Prediction: The A-10 is tough this year, but Dayton seems poised to win the regular season or at least pick up an at-large nomination.


Drake Bulldogs, 9-1

Signature Win: at Iowa

Remaining Tests: Conference foes Creighton and Southern Illinois will look to put the upstart back in its place.

Prediction: If Southern Illinois continues to struggle, Drake will take the second NCAA bid in the slumping MVC.


Miami Hurricanes, 12-0

Signature Wins: at Mississippi State, Puerto Rico Tip-off championship

Remaining Tests: The ACC. The good news is, they only face #1 UNC once, at home, on January 23rd. Otherwise #10 Duke and #20 Clemson home-and-aways are the big danger.

Prediction: The Hurricanes probably aren't good enough to dominate in the ACC, but a .500 or better conference record, and the attendant overseeding that entails, are in their reach.


Ole Miss Rebels, 11-0

Signature Win: neutral-court over then-#15 Clemson

Remaining Tests: at #12 Tennessee January 9th, #15 Vanderbilt at home January 30th. No super-dangerous teams in the SEC West this year.

Prediction: Barring a conference-tournament flame-out, the Rebels seem poised to venture into the NCAA tournament for the first time since a 2002 first-round loss to UCLA.


Sam Houston State Bearkats, 10-0

Signature Wins: Texas Tech at home, at St. Louis

Remaining Tests: stay tough in the Southland West, and for god's sake win the conference tournament.

Prediction: SHSU could run the table and still fall short by one game. If they don't win the Southland tournament, this will all be for naught. Which sucks.


Houston Cougars, 10-1

Signature Win: Kentucky at home.

Remaining Tests: at #18 Arizona January 18th, two scoops of #2 Memphis in conference.

Prediction: Houston can and probably will lose to Memphis twice and still make an excellent case for an at-large bid. Just handle the UTEPs and Rices of the world and things will be dandy.


New Orleans Privateers, 10-2

Signature Wins: at then-#22 NC State, at Colorado

Remaining Tests: Much like Sam Houston State, the Privateers could not lose another game until the conference tournament and they would still miss the dance. However, for a team in such dire straits as this one, even an NIT bid would be sweet, sweet victory.

Prediction: South Alabama could be a thorn in UNO's side. I doubt the undermanned Privateers, playing in a tiny student gym in post-apocalyptic New Orleans, can pull it off. But oh how sweet it would be to have to admit I was wrong come March.


Saint Mary's Gaels, 10-1

Signature Wins: Have beat Drake, then-#11 Oregon, and Seton Hall, all visitors.

Remaining Tests: at #9 Texas January 5, Gonzaga x2 in conference, and the wily Eddie Sutton at USF.

Prediction: Assuming they don't stumble in the WCC, I think the Gaels are worthy of an at-large bid, and could finally mount a challenge to the dominant Zags.


Clearly, the road to the field of 65 is a three-part process. Winning early is rarely enough to get a team in, but these eight contenders have taken the first step. For a few, a winning conference record will ensure a bid, but for the rest, step three - the conference tournament - is where all hope lies. Still - a big win in November against a power program at least makes the committee's deliberations difficult.

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