Auto-Bid Watch 2/14/2008

The Conference RPI shifted in my favor this week, as C-USA moved into the top ten, which I typically ignore for auto-bid purposes, and the Horizon dipped to #11. I would so much rather have an excuse to discuss the Horizon's at-large picture, so this works for me.

1. ACC
2. Pac 10
3. Big 12
4. Big East
5. SEC
6. Big Ten
7. Atlantic 10
8. MVC
9. Mountain West
10. C-USA

11. Horizon - Butler is still the class of the league at 12-2. What makes this conference interesting is that, unlike C-USA, it seems very possible that one of the hungry teams in the upper division of the Horizon can knock the Bulldogs off and force them into at-large status. Look out for Wright State (10-4), who did just that last year. Cleveland State (10-5) has already beat Butler once, and split with Wright this season.

12. WCC - Saint Mary's and Gonzaga are now tied at 8-1 in conference play, and SMC owns the tiebreaker for the nonce by virtue of winning the head-to-head at home. They have a tough Kent State matchup (at home) via Bracket Busters on Feb 23, and then San Diego swings through before the big game at Spokane.

13. MAC - Kent State at 9-2 is celebrating ten straight years of 20+ win seasons. Remarkable consistency for a mid. Western Michigan is keeping pace at 8-3 and the two don't meet until a possible conference tourney matchup.

14. CAA - We tooted W&M's horn for making moves this season, and we hope that continues, but this is coming down to the usual suspects. MGL covers it better than I can, but it's VCU at 12-2 and George Mason a bit behind at 10-4. Any year with double-digit conference wins is a good one in the CAA.

15. Sun Belt - Western Kentucky (of the Eastern Division) has an amazing 12-1 record, and South Alabama is 1/2 a game back at 12-2. Both have sterling 20-5 overall records, and either would be a great tourney rep. Can't we please have both?

16. SoCon - Davidson, of course. 16-0 and the subject of furious theoretical at-large debate. My money says the Wildcats don't even let it become an issue by sweeping through the tourney the way they have the regular season.

17. Patriot - American, who have never been to the dance, are separating from the pack with a 7-3 mark. Their nearest competition is 5-4.

18. Big West - Northridge is holding steady (no, that is not an earthquake joke. I have class). But Fullerton and Pacific are nipping at their heels. Should be another barn-burner of a conference tourney out west.

19. WAC - Boise State just whacked Nevada to move into this race alongside NMSU, but Utah State is king of the hill right now with an 8-2 league slate.

20. Metro Atlantic (MAAC) - Rider and Siena battle it out down to the wire, having split the season series (both teams won on the road!) to knot up at 11-3.

21. Southland - Another East vs. West type of conference, which means Lamar (8-1) owns the left side and Stephen F. Austin (8-2) owns the right.

22. Summit - Still perfect for Oral Roberts (13-0).

23. NEC - Gettin' a mite sticky. Robert Morris moved into a tie with Wagner, as both are 11-2. Sacred Heart is still beating at 11-3.

24. Ivy - Cornell has a commanding 6-0 lead. Reader Max Wasserman gave us the inside scoop yesterday in a Fan Rant.

25. Big Sky - What can I say about Portland State? They're 9-2.

26. Big South - Kenny George has played a total of seven minutes as the UNC-Asheville Bulldogs have fallen twice this week, down to 7-2 and in a virtual dead heat with Winthrop at 7-3.

27. America East - Retrievers are still bringing back wins. UMBC is 9-2.

28. Atlantic Sun - Belmont 10-2.

29. Ohio Valley - Austin Peay keeps their edge at 13-3.

30. Mid-Eastern (MEAC) - Morgan State 9-1, Norfolk State right behind at 8-2.

31. Independents - Texas Pan-American gets the moral victory prize for staying above .500.

32. SWAC - Hornets, baby. Alabama State stays on top at 9-2. Alcorn State is the mirror image at 2-9, but they were the subject of an excellent article by ESPN.com's Dana O'Neil this week.